If not the snub of VFX, Oppie could tie the most noms of 14 by a film in Oscars history, previously acheived by ALL ABOUT EVE, TITANIC, and LA LA LAND.
Most likely to win:
1. Best Director (95%)
2. Best Supporting Actor (85-90%)
3. Best Cinematography (95%)
4. Best Editing (95%)
5. Best Score (95%)
6. Best Sound (95%)
Hard to predict:
1. Best Picture (60-70%)
2. Best Actor (40-50%)
Less likely to win:
1. Best Adapted Screenplay (Possible if Oppenheimer gets Best Picture)
Not gonna win:
1. Best Supporting Actress
2. Best Makeup and Hair
3. Best Costume Design
4. Best Production Design
Picture
Director
Actor
Supporting Actor
Cinematography
Editing
Score
Sound
A little worried about the actor category since Giamatti has been getting momentum lately.
I personally don't think PG will win, he's damn good in The Holdovers but Cillian's more of an anchor for the movie than Paul. The Holdovers was really great but it was one where Paul was more a moving piece than a huge vital fragment if that makes sense. That being said, Paul's got some great moments in that film and he's perfect for the role, so I wouldn't heavily protest him winning on it's own. But this does feel like it should be Cillian's moment.
Christopher Nolan Reacts to ‘Oppenheimer’ Leading Oscar Nominations: “We Never Imagined This Level of Success”
“I grew up loving Hollywood movies,” he continued. “I grew up watching the Academy Awards as a kid, it’s always stood in my mind for the highest form of recognition in a field that I love, and it’s the recognition of people who work in the industry alongside you. So, yeah, it would mean the world to me, but I’m at the moment just counting how lucky I feel to be nominated, and to have a film that that I worked on have the breadth of nominations. It’s really staggering and really rewarding.”
I know it won't win all 13 of them, but if it somehow magically did, then it would beat the record of "Ben-Hur", "Titanic" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" in winning the most Oscars for a single film ever. Just a funny thought.
I think there’s a strong chance it wins 8 of them (picture, director, actor, editing, cinematography, sound, supporting actor, score)
It could even win screenplay because I think it’s been gaining momentum lately on that end.
Jeez, I think the last time a movie about a real physicist was nominated, it was Theory of Everything with a comparatively paltry five nominations. Now all that’s needed is for Oppenheimer to win at least 11 awards here, and everything will be okay! (Although that’s probably unlikely.)