Oppenheimer - Awards Speculation

The upcoming epic thriller based on J. Robert Oppenheimer, the enigmatic man who must risk destroying the world in order to save it.
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Oku
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physicshistoryguy wrote:
November 2nd, 2023, 2:05 pm
Lionheart wrote:
November 2nd, 2023, 10:36 am
physicshistoryguy wrote:
November 1st, 2023, 10:46 pm


I mean, I love Oppenheimer as much as the next guy, and likewise hope it wins as much as it can, but at the very least there's competition in Killers of the Flower Moon.
A Scorsese dud should not be competition. But yeah, you're right, it could win. Because of reasons

There hasn't been a great film that contends in awards so dramatically superior to competition since No Country for Old Men. Oppie should easily sweep all and Nolan leave the stage screaming he's the king of the world. Film-making-wise, he kinda is.
It's interesting you say this was a Scorsese dud, since usually I find that I'm the one telling my cinephile friends that I couldn't click with yet another film in Scorsese's filmography, haha (for instance, it took me three viewings in order for me to find Goodfellas entertaining, let alone the question of whether I thought it was a good film, and I know that says more about me than about Goodfellas). However, where many of his other films didn't work for me, somehow this one did; I was invested in the story it was telling and absolutely loved it to the point where I genuinely do consider it strong competition for Oppenheimer. But that's just my opinion, of course.
Regardless of whether Killers of the Flower Moon is a "dud" quality-wise, it is indisputably a financial dud.

There was a time before the culture of Rotten Tomatoes took hold when the box office numbers was the only real gauge that the Academy had on a film's reception at large outside the L.A. bubble. To ignore the only verifiable, real-world metric of a film's reception would have been madness, and so the Academy would lavishly reward box office smash hits (see: Forrest Gump, Titanic, The Return of the King, etc.).

In such times, Killers of the Flower Moon's embarrassing, disaster-worthy box office performance would have ensured that it would be shut out of genuine Oscars contention. Maybe it would get consolation nominations, but that's it, and there wouldn't be talk of "It's a frontrunner and could actually win."

Nowadays, with Rotten Tomatoes, Film Twitter, etc., the box office is no longer the only way to measure a film's reception. That has allowed the Academy the wherewithal to reward "the best" movies (as they see it, anyway), even if they bombed, failed to reach an audience, and are forgotten within a year, if not months.

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Oku wrote:
November 2nd, 2023, 6:58 pm
physicshistoryguy wrote:
November 2nd, 2023, 2:05 pm
Lionheart wrote:
November 2nd, 2023, 10:36 am


A Scorsese dud should not be competition. But yeah, you're right, it could win. Because of reasons

There hasn't been a great film that contends in awards so dramatically superior to competition since No Country for Old Men. Oppie should easily sweep all and Nolan leave the stage screaming he's the king of the world. Film-making-wise, he kinda is.
It's interesting you say this was a Scorsese dud, since usually I find that I'm the one telling my cinephile friends that I couldn't click with yet another film in Scorsese's filmography, haha (for instance, it took me three viewings in order for me to find Goodfellas entertaining, let alone the question of whether I thought it was a good film, and I know that says more about me than about Goodfellas). However, where many of his other films didn't work for me, somehow this one did; I was invested in the story it was telling and absolutely loved it to the point where I genuinely do consider it strong competition for Oppenheimer. But that's just my opinion, of course.
Regardless of whether Killers of the Flower Moon is a "dud" quality-wise, it is indisputably a financial dud.

There was a time before the culture of Rotten Tomatoes took hold when the box office numbers was the only real gauge that the Academy had on a film's reception at large outside the L.A. bubble. To ignore the only verifiable, real-world metric of a film's reception would have been madness, and so the Academy would lavishly reward box office smash hits (see: Forrest Gump, Titanic, The Return of the King, etc.).

In such times, Killers of the Flower Moon's embarrassing, disaster-worthy box office performance would have ensured that it would be shut out of genuine Oscars contention. Maybe it would get consolation nominations, but that's it, and there wouldn't be talk of "It's a frontrunner and could actually win."

Nowadays, with Rotten Tomatoes, Film Twitter, etc., the box office is no longer the only way to measure a film's reception. That has allowed the Academy the wherewithal to reward "the best" movies (as they see it, anyway), even if they bombed, failed to reach an audience, and are forgotten within a year, if not months.
Fair enough, I assumed "dud" was referring to the film's quality regardless of how well it did, mea culpa. But nevertheless, The Irishman was a financial dud as well, even more so than Killers of the Flower Moon if memory serves, and that ended up being a widely talked about film that was nominated for Best Picture, albeit also in a year with a lot of competition.

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Oku
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No, no, I wasn't calling you out or anything. It's clear that Lionheart was calling it a dud quality-wise and not financially (which is why I ninja-edited my post), so it's not like you misunderstood the discussion.

I was just using the dud talk to segue into financial duds and how the box office's impact on the Oscars has waned.

What I said also applies to The Irishman. Another critically-acclaimed Scorsese flop that managed to still get a ton of Oscar noms, due to what I said above + Netflix's incessant campaigning. I would add that it ended up with zero actual wins.

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physicshistoryguy wrote:
November 2nd, 2023, 1:58 pm
Nicolaslabra wrote:
November 1st, 2023, 11:38 pm
i saw it yesterday (Killers of the flower moon) and its one hell of a story, its an important story too, hell the ending alone makes it a strong oscar contender, and though it didnt shake my world like Oppenheimer, i could understand if it wins best picture, though i would like for Chris to get the directing nod, since Oppenheimer feels like the more impressive directing feat.
Yeah, after I saw it last week, I'd agree with all of this (similarly, I also like Oppenheimer more, but I can't ignore the fact that my preexisting interest in the subject would probably have meant I'd like it more no matter what). I love how the two big historical epics released this year have two of the most powerful endings I've seen in a while. And, as a very minor thing, I find it slightly amusing that both Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon feature J. Edgar Hoover, but only as an off-screen entity mentioned by name in a single scene; I'm not sure I've felt a more inadvertently chilling portrayal of just how much power this man wielded in American history than seeing him pop up in two wildly different films set three decades apart.
yeeees !! i too inmediately noticed J. Edgars connection too, and if im understanding it correcly, the ending of Killers is soo good and poignant because its essentially Martin dealing with the powerlessness a story teller can feel telling this kind of story, its just too good, 2 very stylistically distinct endings, both of them incredibly powerful, pure fucking cinema, i completely disagree with Lionheart, this year has been absolutely incredible and there are still more incredible films to come these last couple of months, the winners at the next Oscars will be so deserving

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Oku wrote:
November 2nd, 2023, 8:19 pm
No, no, I wasn't calling you out or anything. It's clear that Lionheart was calling it a dud quality-wise and not financially (which is why I ninja-edited my post), so it's not like you misunderstood the discussion.

I was just using the dud talk to segue into financial duds and how the box office's impact on the Oscars has waned.

What I said also applies to The Irishman. Another critically-acclaimed Scorsese flop that managed to still get a ton of Oscar noms, due to what I said above + Netflix's incessant campaigning. I would add that it ended up with zero actual wins.
Ah, well in that case, mea culpa again. :P

It'll be interesting to see if, this time around, Scorsese does manage to get wins for Killers even though The Irishman didn't. I'd want to bet that he does, but given Irishman's lack of wins, it's probably more uncertain than I originally thought.

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Nicolaslabra wrote:
November 2nd, 2023, 11:22 pm
physicshistoryguy wrote:
November 2nd, 2023, 1:58 pm
Nicolaslabra wrote:
November 1st, 2023, 11:38 pm
i saw it yesterday (Killers of the flower moon) and its one hell of a story, its an important story too, hell the ending alone makes it a strong oscar contender, and though it didnt shake my world like Oppenheimer, i could understand if it wins best picture, though i would like for Chris to get the directing nod, since Oppenheimer feels like the more impressive directing feat.
Yeah, after I saw it last week, I'd agree with all of this (similarly, I also like Oppenheimer more, but I can't ignore the fact that my preexisting interest in the subject would probably have meant I'd like it more no matter what). I love how the two big historical epics released this year have two of the most powerful endings I've seen in a while. And, as a very minor thing, I find it slightly amusing that both Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon feature J. Edgar Hoover, but only as an off-screen entity mentioned by name in a single scene; I'm not sure I've felt a more inadvertently chilling portrayal of just how much power this man wielded in American history than seeing him pop up in two wildly different films set three decades apart.
yeeees !! i too inmediately noticed J. Edgars connection too, and if im understanding it correcly, the ending of Killers is soo good and poignant because its essentially Martin dealing with the powerlessness a story teller can feel telling this kind of story, its just too good, 2 very stylistically distinct endings, both of them incredibly powerful, pure fucking cinema, i completely disagree with Lionheart, this year has been absolutely incredible and there are still more incredible films to come these last couple of months, the winners at the next Oscars will be so deserving
Oh yes, absolutely; I mean, as far as cinema is concerned, I've only really been focusing on Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon since those are right up my alley - and Barbie, thanks to the Barbenheimer phenomenon - but if these three films are any indication of the trajectory of the film industry going forward, then I'd say things are great.
For me, the ending of Killers was doing several things at once, and I'm not even sure I can fully or coherently articulate my feelings on it, but I do want to try for my own sake. By abruptly shifting from his film to this cheesy, almost comically insensitive radio portrayal of the murders, Scorsese wanted to deliberately draw attention to how exploitative true crime as a genre is, and the ethics of Scorsese even telling this story in the way that he did. After all, what really is the difference between that cheesy radio show and his own film? They both continue in the tradition of exploiting actual human suffering for financial gain or for entertaining PR (like how the radio show is very transparently an advertisement for a cigarette brand, and for Hoover's built-up FBI), while neglecting the fact that these were people that actually suffered in real life... does he have the right to tell this story? If there is a difference - beyond the fact that Scorsese's portrayal is obviously better and less offensive - it's that Scorsese knows his position as a storyteller who is telling a story that may not be his to tell, yet a story he obviously felt passionate about telling, and telling in a respectful way that at least tried to do justice to the Osage. And that last line of the radio show - "There was no mention of the murders." - compels us as the audience to come to terms with the fact that we haven't heard of this story before, or at least I hadn't heard of it until I learned Scorsese was making this film, despite living in America my whole life. Why is that? This is an important story, but for some reason I hadn't heard of it; in a way, that final line is an indictment of the fact that I was fully ignorant about the Osage murders until Scorsese made a true crime film about it. But how far does ignorance go until it becomes complicity? There's an interesting similarity between this ending and that of Oppenheimer, in that both films ended so powerfully by forcing the audience to confront an aspect of reality - whether the threat of nuclear weapons, or the treatment of Native Americans - that they likely hadn't confronted in any major way. The audience may have forgotten about this issue, or thought it was something belonging to the past, or maybe never considered it at all, but that issue still exists and affects people today, and Nolan and Scorsese wanted to force us to confront these issues in a meaningfully impactful way. In that goal, I think they both succeeded brilliantly.

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Haven't seen Killers of the Flower Moon, yet...troubling finding the time. But I don't see it as Oppenheimer's biggest competition. I know people are pitting the two against each other on Oscar sites, etc. But I feel Oppenheimer's bigger threats will be something in much different style like upcoming flicks, Poor Things or American Fiction.
Also don't sleep on upcoming, The Holdovers, it seems to be a real crowd pleaser. Also like or not, there also will be swell of support for Barbie and Gerwig.

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Ace
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David Krumholtz said he was being submitted by Universal but has since deleted that tweet.

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Ace wrote:
November 5th, 2023, 7:25 pm
David Krumholtz said he was being submitted by Universal but has since deleted that tweet.
I think he wanted to clear it up, but he felt like he was promoting the movie and maybe breaking the strike rules.

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