nightfury93 wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 2:50 pm

bootsy wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 2:14 pm

Past Lives fits the narrative of what has won Best Pic the last few years. Non-white, smaller budget, marginalized community, sort of feel good narrative. Someone mentioned in this thread that Oppenheimer might not win because of these reasons. It's very possible but it's also possible that Oscars say enough and give to a big budgeted, well known director/stars type movie to go against the narrative of the past few years.

I'm probably just a delusional fanboy but imho if there is any filmmaker who can buck the trend it's Nolan because of how much appeal he has in the film industry and the general public. Like I said - I think he's going to have his own backers come awards season given the influence he's had on young people getting into film.
I do want to see "Past Lives" though. But like I said - I just want Nolan to get at least 1 Oscar, lol.

I think we all do. Winning an Oscar has kind of become a joke in the last decade or so but it's still a prestigious award.

bootsy wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 3:03 pm

nightfury93 wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 2:50 pm

bootsy wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 2:14 pm

Past Lives fits the narrative of what has won Best Pic the last few years. Non-white, smaller budget, marginalized community, sort of feel good narrative. Someone mentioned in this thread that Oppenheimer might not win because of these reasons. It's very possible but it's also possible that Oscars say enough and give to a big budgeted, well known director/stars type movie to go against the narrative of the past few years.

I'm probably just a delusional fanboy but imho if there is any filmmaker who can buck the trend it's Nolan because of how much appeal he has in the film industry and the general public. Like I said - I think he's going to have his own backers come awards season given the influence he's had on young people getting into film.
I do want to see "Past Lives" though. But like I said - I just want Nolan to get at least 1 Oscar, lol.

I think we all do. Winning an Oscar has kind of become a joke in the last decade or so but it's still a prestigious award.

Oh I agree. It's just one of those things.... like you know its meaningless and more often then not the best film doesn't win - but you still like to see deserving people rewarded.
Also the Oscars have never been truly about what's "best" and I could rip apart the choices they made decades ago but I agree over the last 10 years or so they've become even worse (though to be honest, Hollywood has been garbage in that time frame as well. A big reason I am thankful Nolan is still drawing sizable audiences. Makes it more impressive as well)

Best Picture winner runtime since 2000
Everything everywhere 140 minutes 
coda 112 minutes 
Normanland 108 minutes 
Parasite 133 minutes 
Green book 130 minutes 
the shape of water 123 minutes 
moon light 111 minutes 
Spotlight 129 minutes 
Birdman 120 minutes 
12 years a slave 134 minutes 
Argo 120 minutes 
artist 100 minutes 
King’s speech 118 minutes 
the hurt locker 131 minutes 
Slumdog Millionaire 120 minutes 
No country 122 minutes 
The departed 151 minutes 
Crash 112 minutes 
Million dollar baby 132 minutes 
return of the king 201 minutes 
Chicago 113 minutes 
a beautiful mind 135 minutes 
gladiator 155 minutes 
the academy hasn’t been going for long times 
 
1 movie over 3 hours 
3 movies of 2.5 hours.  most movies in 110 minutes to 135 minutes 
In the 90s 3 movies with a 3-hour runtime won best picture and Braveheart's runtime is just short of 3 hours by 2 minutes.  
I don’t think a long runtime movie is winning best picture 
 
recently the academy likes a positive emotional ending. Also Since Slumdog only Argo was a best picture winner in which the director had a movie nominated before

Movies in contention that
Past lives
The Book of Clarence
Lee
Across the Spider verse
Zone of interest
Anatomy of a fall
Color purple
Rustin
Dumb money
Freud’s last session

Rustin is a Netflix film is so it is out.

Across the spider verse is an animated film and a sequel so it is our.

Anatomy of a fall and zone of interest are international films so they out. I can’t see the academy going 2 international films in 5 years.
The color purple is a remake and a musical. Since Oliver winning best picture in 1969 only Chicago has best picture. Only 2 movies in 54 years have been musical.



Dumb money seems like a stretch at this point.

Freud’s last session does have subject matter that might appeal to academy for a nominee. It is about Freud is on death bed and invited a young C.S. Lewis over to debate the exist of God. But doesn’t seem like something that can win. But the director who has only done one other film that has 63% on RT. It might get some acting nominations for Anthony Hopkins but nothing else.

So that leaves Lee, and Past Lives. Past lives fits these but not as emotionally positive of ending that is moving as Coda or Everything. But it is light film and not serious. Lee his a true story of a women photographer during WWII.

Films in contention from a previous picture that was nominee or winner
Air
Killers of the flower moon
May December
Barbie
Oppenheimer
The Holderovers
Saltburn
Ferrari
Maestro
Dune part 2
The killer
Poor things
Napoleon
Bob Marley: One love
Priscilla
Boys in the Boat
Next Goal Wins

Air: not enough love and night only get supporting actress nomination.

Killers of the flower moon: too long

May December: buzz is strong but not sure if strong enough out of Cannes. Seems behind killers of flower moon, anatomy of fall, and zone of interest.

Barbie: being based off a toy will hurt

Oppenheimer: too long and serious

Holdovers: Payne is well like and his movies have played well with academy. The way academy has moved to more light hearted stuff. Seems like something that can could win. Should have good runtime too.

Saltburn maybe. Interesting premise

Ferrari: give Michael Mann his Oscar?

Maestro: Netflix will hurt it. Mixed testing screening but it is about a famous musical artist. But most likely is Cooper for acting

Dune 2: a sequel sci fi and the middle of story. I high doubtful plus it will be long. Not sure it sweep the techs this time. Lots of tech competition this year from Barbie, Oppenheimer, killers of the flower moon, Napoleon.

The killer: a Netflix Fincher crime movie seems unlikely

Poor things: seems to strange for the academy

Napoleon: Ridley is very mixed. It is longer movie. Ridley already won for picture but doesn’t have an Oscar. Better shot at directing.

Bob Marley: one love: king Richard did pretty good at the Oscar. Could be crowd pleaser.

Priscilla: can’t see the Oscar giving this best picture when Elvis was nominated last year.

Boys in the boat: Clooney hasn’t had directing hit in over 10 years seems doubtful.

Next goal wins: unlikely Taika just got screenplay win. I can’t see him also getting picture win soon after JoJo Rabbit

I think Holdovers is my bet right now. A24 won last year so I don’t see past lives winning.
I think Oppenheimer is going to get nominated for best picture but not win it.

To the person above me, you are probably right. But the Oscars do frequently split Best Pic and Best Director. Leftovers might be a stronger Best Pic chance, but whenever I see an Alexander Payne film I feel like his directing is the weakest element - at least the visual component. His films have great screenplays and he, to his credit, gets good performances out of his actors. But none of his movies left be wow'd in the direction department.

Even if his film won BP I can definitely see the Academy splitting and giving a more spectacle-based film like "Oppenheimer" Best Director.

nightfury93 wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 4:36 pm

To the person above me, you are probably right. But the Oscars do frequently split Best Pic and Best Director. Leftovers might be a stronger Best Pic chance, but whenever I see an Alexander Payne film I feel like his directing is the weakest element - at least the visual component. His films have great screenplays and he, to his credit, gets good performances out of his actors. But none of his movies left be wow'd in the direction department.

Even if his film won BP I can definitely see the Academy splitting and giving a more spectacle-based film like "Oppenheimer" Best Director.

I can see Mann or Scott winning director over Nolan if there movies are great.

If Nolan doesn't win Best Director for this - something that's received damn near unanimous praise from critics - it's hard to imagine him ever taking home that award. Sadly it's all politics though, and he may suffer the same fate as Kubrick in that regard. Which is to say, that's just fine by me.

Hustler wrote: ↑

July 30th, 2023, 5:17 pm

If Nolan doesn't win Best Director for this - something that's received damn near unanimous praise from critics - it's hard to imagine him ever taking home that award. Sadly it's all politics though, and he may suffer the same fate as Kubrick in that regard. Which is to say, that's just fine by me.

I agree but it would still stink.
Also at least Kubrick got an Oscar for Best Visual Effects for 2001. Obviously not the same as Best Pic/Director/Screenplay... but still, at least he got something lol

My advice is to remember the Oscars are nothing more and nothing less than an expression of a single voting body's taste at a given point in time, heavily influenced by prevailing trends inside the industry at that moment. They are neither irrelevant nor that important.

Nolan, like the majority of filmmakers who have already built up a substantial body of work with critical and financial success, doesn't need trophies.

It would be cool for him to get recognition, but it doesn't mean that much either way.


-Vader

I'm rooting for everyone in this film even though I know the film might only win some technical awards, unless something changes this year.

Nolan made a few best picture and best director worthy films so I'm used to him not winning in those categories. But I truly hope Cillian Murphy gets some love because his performance is beyond words.

With all being said, I look forward to see Universal's FYC campaign for Oppenheimer later this year!