First of all, relax.MuffinMcFluffin wrote: ↑August 1st, 2023, 2:34 pmEverything that I stated was before his video was even recorded. Why are you disputing the math, or why aren't you countering the basic "50% of box office" number that I am then stating?LelekPL wrote: ↑August 1st, 2023, 1:09 pmI like Dan Murrel, he's very passionate but ultimately he's just a youtuber. I wouldn't take his word as gospel as he's not much more than a glorified hobbyist and I definitely would always trust a Variety, THR or Deadline reporter over him. And even he says he gets his calculations from what he heard online, not what he confirmed at the source because he doesn't have such connections.
His metrics are VERY conservative in terms of studio takes and both he and theater owners have said this. The theater chains take much less revenue from ticket sales than what we think and what he calculates "on the safe side", as they make most of their money on concessions sales rather than ticket sales.
What did Variety say? I want you to tell me exactly what they said, because I can tell you and I have stated it post after post. They said that Nolan will have to be paid (and their conservative value was $50 million) and that AT LEAST $400 million will have to be earned for box office profit. They were two years out and didn't have anything else to state at the time. Have they posted something since then? Did they claim yesterday that "Oppenheimer has made over $400 million worldwide and is now profitable"?
My point of posting the first time is because somebody basically mentioned "If this movie makes $400 million then it will be profitable," which is complete and utter bullshit. Nobody still has yet to even mention Nolan's 20% take. Can anyone tell me how much the movie would have to make to then pay Nolan back 20% and still make money off the film? If you have trouble finding it, I've already mentioned it several times.
I was using that video to support my own findings, that once again somebody else on this god forsaken forum can be more accurate about domestic vs. international and Nolan's first-dollar gross.
Second of all, I'm not going to dispute your calculations, which mathematically adds up. I'm also not going to dispute Dan's calculations. But at the end of the day, your calculations are flawed because they are based on rumored, not verified generic takes between studios and theaters. We know that almost every blockbuster has its own caveats in the deals between the two and there is no one formula to calculate the nett gross for all movies if you don't know the behind the scenes agreements. What you're doing are just estimates and they can be way off depending what the agreement between Universal and Theaters was for Oppenheimer.
That's why I don't take what you say or Dan says at face value. I also don't take the one off-hand line in a Variety article seriously because it wasn't the main story of the article so it also might be just as off. However, once the dust settles, I will trust the analysis of Variety, THR or Deadline more than that of Dan Murrel or a random guy on a Nolan Fans forum. For now, it's just an interesting debate and it's ok to speculate but you're treating it like you KNOW the deal already. You don't, so just relax.
