To be fair, Variety's estimate of $400 million came from rival studios. Those rival studios do not have a reason to under-estimate the dollar figure needed for profitability. If anything, they have motivation to OVER-estimate this number...because they want to make Universal look bad. "It needs $400 million to break even." Then when it actually breaks even at $350 million, the rival studios have already tainted public opinion by leaking that $400 million number to Variety.MuffinMcFluffin wrote: ↑July 31st, 2023, 12:41 amMy point of all of this was to say you want to play on the safe side of things, not assume that it has already broken even.
And yes, there are many things we haven't factored in, such as exclusive rights to IMAX and whatever else may be involved. So to say that $400 million is the breakeven point then is farcical. Aim higher is all.
Box Office
Here's the screenshot from the Variety article a couple years ago. Variety (and rival studios) were already accounting for Nolan's special deal, and rival studios might have been overestimating this number if anything to make Universal & Nolan look bad if it came up short of $400 million:
Let's run down a couple of bullet points:redfirebird2008 wrote: ↑July 31st, 2023, 12:48 amHere's the screenshot from the Variety article a couple years ago. Variety (and rival studios) were already accounting for Nolan's special deal, and rival studios might have been overestimating this number if anything to make Universal & Nolan look bad if it came up short of $400 million:
1) First-dollar gross is "increasingly uncommon." I'm hearing in this thread that directors and actors are nabbing these deals under the table left and right. Even if true, if unreported then we can't go by it. This is reported, and Universal won the negotiation war because of things like this and the 100-day theatrical window.
2) I don't dispute its claims of a $100 production budget, $100 marketing budget, and needing to provide Nolan first-dollar gross.
3) They said "at least," as in "any less is wrong." They aren't accounting for variables yet regarding his first-dollar gross. For all we know the 20% value wasn't reported yet. "At least" has an infinite ceiling, you know. I'm going to breathe at least one time today, and I'm not wrong.
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So then how does that $400 million value apply, even if we go by everyone's claim of 50% studio take?
$400 million at the box office means a $200 million take at 50%, and then if they gave Nolan the low end of $50 million, that means the studio's final value is $150 million. That is $50 million less than $200 million. That is not turning a profit, not to mention Nolan technically wouldn't receive that payment because that is not 20% of what the studio's take would be (at $400 million B.O., Nolan would receive about $41 million).
Remember, if Nolan is paid $50 million, that means that is 20% of what the studio gets back, which would have to be $250 million (meaning Nolan takes $50 mil and studio takes $200 mil). For them to earn those specific value, they would need to make... [drum roll]... $490 million. I already did that math.
Before you respond, please take that word "at least" into account, and please understand that their floor is set without taking Nolan's cut into account, otherwise it literally wouldn't profit.
Priceless.
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I'm still unclear, the movie will play in Japan? They just haven't set a date yet?
Okay, these are my profit line calculations. Somebody dispute me:
The studios will pay Nolan per his 20% first-dollar gross contract. Nobody can dispute this, as even Variety says as much (they don't say 20% but that is officially the word, and they might not have known at the time). So what I'll first mention is pre-Nolan payment.
Domestically, Universal has taken in $104.6 million (60% of 43% of $405.6 mil).
Internationally, Universal has taken in $92.5 million (40% of 57% of $405.6 mil).
This total is $197.1 million (not using early rounded calculations).
Okay, so the studio has made that much money.
The studio will owe $200 due to production and marketing budgets, which means before paying Nolan they still have not yet found the green outside of their own budget. They are still $2.9 million short.
However, they will also owe Nolan 20% of $197.1 million, which is $39.4 million.
197.1 - 200 - 39.4 = -$42.3 million
This is how much Universal is in the red, if the box office stopped making money on Oppenheimer at end of day Sunday.
Does this mean they only need $42.3 million more to break even? No, because those percentages taken from domestic and international plus owing Nolan 20% of whatever they make.
What is the number now that international takes in 57%? The line is now about $515 million (at which point Universal will take in $250 million and owe Nolan $50 million of that, which is 20 percent).
I don't know why previous posters have been disputing these numbers. Look at them again and tell me what I'm missing. I'm laying it out in front of you cold.
The studios will pay Nolan per his 20% first-dollar gross contract. Nobody can dispute this, as even Variety says as much (they don't say 20% but that is officially the word, and they might not have known at the time). So what I'll first mention is pre-Nolan payment.
Domestically, Universal has taken in $104.6 million (60% of 43% of $405.6 mil).
Internationally, Universal has taken in $92.5 million (40% of 57% of $405.6 mil).
This total is $197.1 million (not using early rounded calculations).
Okay, so the studio has made that much money.
The studio will owe $200 due to production and marketing budgets, which means before paying Nolan they still have not yet found the green outside of their own budget. They are still $2.9 million short.
However, they will also owe Nolan 20% of $197.1 million, which is $39.4 million.
197.1 - 200 - 39.4 = -$42.3 million
This is how much Universal is in the red, if the box office stopped making money on Oppenheimer at end of day Sunday.
Does this mean they only need $42.3 million more to break even? No, because those percentages taken from domestic and international plus owing Nolan 20% of whatever they make.
What is the number now that international takes in 57%? The line is now about $515 million (at which point Universal will take in $250 million and owe Nolan $50 million of that, which is 20 percent).
I don't know why previous posters have been disputing these numbers. Look at them again and tell me what I'm missing. I'm laying it out in front of you cold.
