Sky007 wrote:The next two weeks are vital to this being a 35 mil OW or a 50 mil OW. Reviews and WOM will be more vital here than any of Nolan's previous spectacles.
The Styles factor is still unknown, but that could be a bigger push than expected. A Leo/Titanic effect.

This'll all be easier to gauge once we get to the week of and the hype is at full force.

This film feels a lot like the weeks before Inception.

cooldude wrote:You know, it’d be interesting if someone can find the tracking predictions made by experts for Inception during this stage.

[...]

Indeed, box office analysts say Warners should aim for something in the $50 million to $70 million range on opening weekend, not that far removed from "Avatar."

[...]

Vader182 wrote:This isn't as bad as it sounds but WB need to step the fuck up.

Dunkirk's box office is going to have to over-perform and have crazy legs just to be decently profitable. The two closest comparisons we have are Fury and Hacksaw Ridge. They opened at 24 million and 15 million respectively, going on to earn 211 million and 175 million. This is noteworthy and concerning for a few reasons. The first is the problem of opening weekend. Fury and Ridge were both made for a lot less (40-70 million) and had way smaller marketing budgets. Fury also came out in the middle of FALL. Dunkirk's budget is probably in the 150-200 million range and marketing is probably in that same range. In this case, both Fury and Ridge got good reviews and had strong legs. Fury had an opening weekend multiplier by 8 and Ridge did by about 11.

IF we assume Dunkirk won't do worse than Fury or Ridge, the global cume comes at a conservative 280-
385 million. BUT, Dunkirk should exceed that 11x multiplier because:

1.) historically long legs + word of mouth

2.) China + big international push

3.) August and September lack a likely blockbuster, main competition will be already released movies.

So Dunkirk probably won't struggle too hard to break even or slightly exceed the 400 million range. Again, this is assuming all else is equal. Movie could still be just okay, too experimental and alienating, the lack of stars could hurt it, and audiences frankly may not be interested in a serious war picture in a dire political climate especially next to an adult-oriented blockbuster like Apes.

We've really all been saying stuff like this since day one of the project announcement. WB better have an ace in the hole and continue ramping up the huge marketing push these last two and a half weeks.


-Vader