Dobson wrote: ↑

June 9th, 2023, 7:02 pm

As of early 2023, we are currently sitting at 1.3°C global warming, having just exited a cool La Nina phase and headed into: 1) a warm El Nino phase, 2) a particularly active solar maximum, and 3) continued massive reductions to sulfur pollution that provides aerosol shielding. Summer 2024 is going to be bad, worse than anything we’ve ever seen. It will shock the world. This is not hyperbole, this is not alarmism, this is the simplest expression of the current facts. Anyone with any understanding of risk assessment or precautionary planning should understand that this is not a joke.

Dobson wrote: ↑

July 5th, 2023, 9:22 am

Ecological tipping points could occur much sooner than expected, study finds

World hits record land, sea temperatures as climate change fuels 2023 extremes

Catastrophic climate 'doom loops' could start in just 15 years, new study warns
I bet they already started

https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7

As of early 2023, we are currently sitting at 1.3°C global warming, having just exited a cool La Nina phase and headed into: 1) a warm El Nino phase, 2) a particularly active solar maximum, and 3) continued massive reductions to sulfur pollution that provides aerosol shielding. Summer 2024 is going to be bad, worse than anything we’ve ever seen. It will shock the world. This is not hyperbole, this is not alarmism, this is the simplest expression of the current facts. Anyone with any understanding of risk assessment or precautionary planning should understand that this is not a joke.

Earth is hurtling towards its average temperature rising by 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. One climate model suggests that the likelihood of reaching that threshold in 2023 is now 55%.

The 1.5 °C figure was a preferred maximum warming limit set by the United Nations in the landmark 2015 Paris agreement on climate change. Climate scientists use different models to make predictions. In Breaching the Paris limit requires a long-term trend of warming of 1.5 °C or more, but some research groups tracking average annual temperatures in isolation are already predicting 1.5 °C of warming this year. In May, a World Meteorological Organization report said that there was a 66% chance that the average annual temperature would breach 1.5 °C of warming between 2023 and 2027.

In its August 2023 monthly update, Berkeley Earth — a non-profit climate-monitoring organization — has put the chance of 2023 being on average 1.5 °C warmer at 55%. This is up from a chance of less than 1% predicted by the team before the start of the year, and the 20% chance estimated using July’s figures. “So this year has played out in a very unusual fashion,” says Robert Rohde, Berkeley Earth’s lead scientist in Zurich, Switzerland.

“I will admit to being surprised,” says Rohde. “I was surprised at how warm August came in.”