Bacon wrote: ↑

May 18th, 2020, 4:45 pm

m4st4 wrote: ↑

May 18th, 2020, 5:45 am

Recent Harward study (like several days old) suggests, based on thorough presented data, corona virus is most likely a seasonal virus, meaning countries who decided on major lockdown from March-June did the right thing. The numbers would be far higher if they haven't. From summer until fall the world should slowly start opening up... And whatever comes in fall we'll be better prepared and more knowledgeable. Social distancing will continue, but so will life and most work routines. Here where I live corridors between countries are already opening up, and hotels will be fully open in June. July-September reservations are full to the max, no cancellations. As for the number of cases in Croatia and Slovenia, 1-5 per day. Steady decline since mid March.

How would it be a seasonal virus if it affected everywhere worldwide at basically the same level of strength? Herd immunity/exposure and antibodies?

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covi ... r-weather/

So in summary:
For the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, we have reason to expect that like other betacoronaviruses, it may transmit somewhat more efficiently in winter than summer, though we don’t know the mechanism(s) responsible. The size of the change is expected to be modest, and not enough to stop transmission on its own. Based on the analogy of pandemic flu, we expect that SARS-CoV-2, as a virus new to humans, will face less immunity and thus transmit more readily even outside of the winter season. Changing seasons and school vacation may help, but are unlikely to stop transmission. Urgent for effective policy is to determine if children are important transmitters, in which case school closures may help slow transmission, or not, in which case resources would be wasted in such closures.

Obviously not black and white but summer means virus is not as easily transmitted as in winter. Also, where did you get the 'basically same level of strength' information? That is not true. You have scientists saying countries may be dealing with different mutations of the virus, as well as various other factors that come into play (case in point Italy vs. where I live, which is mere miles away and almost unaffected by the virus).

Has anyone googled 2020 quarter lol? I couldn’t f***ing believe what I saw

My governor just opened up the entire state from movie theaters to sporting events and large scale gatherings.

What's the plan in case of spike in number of cases?

Pratham wrote: ↑

May 22nd, 2020, 2:53 am

What's the plan in case of spike in number of cases?

What, like in general or per country?

Fingers crossed I guess.

This is such a hard issue to take a stance on as we don’t have the 20/20 hindsight, but as of now, this very moment, this virus isn’t even remotely as bad as projected. In my state, that was in the top 5 worst states for cases for awhile, the hospitals weren’t even remotely full and one of my former employees who is now a respiratory therapist at a hospital in this state, hasn’t had any day worse/more busy than a typical day before the virus hit.

Do people know that the average age of death from the virus is actually higher than the average age of death in general?

I’m all for the 6 foot rule and wearing masks in populated areas, if a state is truly having high death rates, absolutely do what is necessary with the stay at home orders. The disappointing part for a state like mine, is it feels like they’ve done nothing with the time to figure out a better plan than “everyone must stay at home” in the past 2 months. Why not come up with a program to furlough at risk people and make sure they get paid until they feel safe to comeback to work (they could do this for people who aren’t at risk if they aren’t comfortable as well)? Come up with shipping programs so at risk people don’t have to leave their houses but don’t have to pay ridiculous shipping costs. There are so many things they could do to get the best of survival rate and not tanking the economy outside of “nobody do anything”.

It scares me how many people that don’t have compromised immune systems are afraid to go into public spaces because they feel they are “risking their lives”. If most people that are dying are elderly or have compromised immune systems and you don’t fall into either category, then what percent chance do you think you have of dying even if you get it?

m4st4 wrote: ↑

May 22nd, 2020, 3:06 am

Pratham wrote: ↑

May 22nd, 2020, 2:53 am

What's the plan in case of spike in number of cases?

What, like in general or per country?

Fingers crossed I guess.

Just asking Bacon for his state.

I hate how there is no middle ground. People are either acting like they’re balancing between life or death by going to a grocery store, or mocking the existence of the virus altogether. No feeling truly feels valid anymore because you’re always wondering if you’ve fallen to either of the exaggerated sides.

At this point I personally think my country should not extend quarantine beyond mid June. Our health system did not collapse, our casualty toll was not catastrophical compared to other countries, at this point I feel like the increasing disillusionment coming from the regular folk is beginning to sound more and more reasonable. We don’t have a plan on how to deal with the aftermath, the government is not thinking past the election later this year. We’ve pretty much ostracized our senior citizens and haven’t established a system (or any semblance of a system) to care for our most vulnerable parts of society, other than throwing a bit of money at them (not now...near the election!) Somes stores even have the audacity to hang up warnings, specifically singling out seniors as unwelcome to enter. And it’s really hard to offer any criticism, because then you’re risking being labelled a tinfoil hat wearing lunatic.

Also not to be THAT person on a kino forum, but you cannot convince me restaurants (not take outs) and gyms are LESS dangerous than movie theaters. The formers have already been opened up, the latters... who the fuck knows!

Ruth wrote: ↑

May 22nd, 2020, 12:11 pm

I hate how there is no middle ground. People are either acting like they’re balancing between life or death by going to a grocery store, or mocking the existence of the virus altogether. No feeling truly feels valid anymore because you’re always wondering if you’ve fallen to either of the exaggerated sides.

At this point I personally think my country should not extend quarantine beyond mid June. Our health system did not collapse, our casualty toll was not catastrophical compared to other countries, at this point I feel like the increasing disillusionment coming from the regular folk is beginning to sound more and more reasonable. We don’t have a plan on how to deal with the aftermath, the government is not thinking past the election later this year. We’ve pretty much ostracized our senior citizens and haven’t established a system (or any semblance of a system) to care for our most vulnerable parts of society, other than throwing a bit of money at them (not now...near the election!) Somes stores even have the audacity to hang up warnings, specifically singling out seniors as unwelcome to enter. And it’s really hard to offer any criticism, because then you’re risking being labelled a tinfoil hat wearing lunatic.

Also not to be THAT person on a kino forum, but you cannot convince me restaurants (not take outs) and gyms are LESS dangerous than movie theaters. The formers have already been opened up, the latters... who the fuck knows!

It's tough. The economic fallout here in Chicagoland is fucking terrible. Some of our favorite restaurants have closed permanently. As you know, Covid-19 fucked up my personal life to a huge extent. Yet, we just had our deadliest day not long ago. Where's the line in the sand? I truly do not know.

I'm more comfortable with areas that aren't densely populated with low death counts reopening up or areas that haven't been hit too hard. It's not just about flattening the curve, after all, it's about mitigating loss of life if the virus is highly prevalent in the community.

I know these aren't coherent thoughts, I'm just exhausted and depressed about it all. The lack of having good answers is defeating.


-Vader

Houston recently received a big fat F in social distancing.

Yeah I'm not leaving my neighborhood for a while.