Long post warning!

I am very confident (as confident as one can be this early on) that Oppenheimer has an excellent chance of getting a lot of academy love; enough to have it nominated for everything under the sun. It pretty much fulfils that perfect trifecta; of being a very academy friendly movie (biopic, acting powerhouse, great script, perceived historic and current importance and commentary), a technically strong film (cinematography, sound awards, score, editing etc are very easy picks) and lastly it's coming as sortof a cultural touchstone of the year (largely piggybacking off Barbie's success) likely to make A LOT of money.

But make no mistake, there are A LOT of promising films coming out between now and then; David Fincher's The Killer, Sofia Coppola's Priscilla, Lanthimos' Poor Things, Pablo Larrain's El conde, Alexander Payne's Holdovers, Bradley Cooper's Maestro, Michael Mann's Ferrari...and that's the stuff we know about!

Not to mention that Celine Song's Past Lives is an excellent film, and I hear Killers of the flower moon is a certified banger. I'm sure Warner Bros' will lobby hard for Dune 2 and Barbie as well.

History dictates that not all (if not less than half) will hit as hard as Oppenheimer has; but if it does, we should all be lucky. Either way, it really is too early to tell...but it doesn't really matter in the end. It's still an amazing film with or without Oscar recognition.

i see great chances for many noms, sound mixing and editing, the score and production design are possible wins in my view, Rob Downey is a sure supporting actor nod, as is Emily, Cillian is sure to get the lead nod and im even confident of his chances at a win, Chris might get another director nod, im quite sure of that one, a win though i dont think so, i think the academy feels getting him a nod is enough, and the movie itself surely will get a nomination, a win could be on the cards but the film just is so outside of the academy`s standards for best picture wins currently, VFX im calling a win straight up, and cinematography i can see a nomination but the movie shot so raw and in a minimalistic verite style, unlike what they have been giving the cinematography oscars to in the last years, wich are movies with a heavier visual style, i dont know really but i feel this one will do quite well at awards ceremonies.

Most likely nominations across the board, most likely to win is probably RDJ or Ludwig. Nolan for adapted screenplay is possible. Director is also possible but less so. BP (win) is extremely unlikely.

Truthfully, I don't see this winning much unless studios follow through with cratering the fall release schedule.


-Vader

Vader182 wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 5:23 am

Most likely nominations across the board, most likely to win is probably RDJ or Ludwig. Nolan for adapted screenplay is possible. Director is also possible but less so. BP (win) is extremely unlikely.

Truthfully, I don't see this winning much unless studios follow through with cratering the fall release schedule.


-Vader

Why?

radewart wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 6:01 am

Vader182 wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 5:23 am

Most likely nominations across the board, most likely to win is probably RDJ or Ludwig. Nolan for adapted screenplay is possible. Director is also possible but less so. BP (win) is extremely unlikely.

Truthfully, I don't see this winning much unless studios follow through with cratering the fall release schedule.


-Vader

Why?

A few things.

One is that Killers of the Flower Moon a similar deal, a prestige (white) filmmaker adapting a famous work of non-fiction about America's shady past into an epic. They will compete in almost all of the same categories. I suspect it could lead to votes being split between them compared to other films that separate themselves more strongly.

Another consideration is that––and I say this without judgement and I plead for people here to not argue about this––the AMPAS increasingly seldom give the major trophies to white guys making movies about "regular" white guys. The trend is very much to award movies made by underheard voices and/or films that bring focus to various social issues.

There are some notable exceptions for directing/writing winners, like Gravity, La La Land, The Father, Belfast. But fairly rare. So performances, score, and maybe technicals (editing/sound) are the most likely, but those will be competitive categories. Especially if Dune doesn't move.


-Vader

Vader182 wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 7:21 am

radewart wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 6:01 am

Vader182 wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 5:23 am

Most likely nominations across the board, most likely to win is probably RDJ or Ludwig. Nolan for adapted screenplay is possible. Director is also possible but less so. BP (win) is extremely unlikely.

Truthfully, I don't see this winning much unless studios follow through with cratering the fall release schedule.


-Vader

Why?

A few things.

One is that Killers of the Flower Moon a similar deal, a prestige (white) filmmaker adapting a famous work of non-fiction about America's shady past into an epic. They will compete in almost all of the same categories. I suspect it could lead to votes being split between them compared to other films that separate themselves more strongly.

Another consideration is that––and I say this without judgement and I plead for people here to not argue about this––the AMPAS increasingly seldom give the major trophies to white guys making movies about "regular" white guys. The trend is very much to award movies made by underheard voices and/or films that bring focus to various social issues.

There are some notable exceptions for directing/writing winners, like Gravity, La La Land, The Father, Belfast. But fairly rare. So performances, score, and maybe technicals (editing/sound) are the most likely, but those will be competitive categories. Especially if Dune doesn't move.


-Vader

I think the one big thing that is in Nolan's favor though, at least for Best Director, is who he is and the impact he has had on the industry. I guarantee you there are a bunch of voters who are on the younger side who got into movies at least in part due to Nolan (for instance - I credit The Dark Knight for having the biggest impact in sparking my interest in film) and who may vote for him not only due to his effort with Oppenheimer, but for his overall legacy as a filmmaker. Additionally the more movies that get pushed back due to the strike the less competition there will be. Regardless I agree that "Killers of the Flower Moon" is going to be the biggest competition.

Also I won't say much else on the whole passing over Nolan due to him being white and making a movie about a white guy - but I know the Academy does this stuff and it reeks of just replacing one perceived brand of racism with another. It's a big reason why once (hopefully) Nolan wins an Oscar I won't care about the Oscars as much going forward despite loving film - because ultimately they mean nothing of quality.

I can actually see Past Lives being the main competition. I think Killers of the Flower Moon has letdown potential similar to The Irishman. People see the stars, director and think it's automatic. This is not me saying it's going to be the Irishman but let's wait and see first.

bootsy wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 1:31 pm

I can actually see Past Lives being the main competition. I think Killers of the Flower Moon has letdown potential similar to The Irishman. People see the stars, director and think it's automatic. This is not me saying it's going to be the Irishman but let's wait and see first.

I haven't seen much with that film, though I'd like to see it at some point. Is it a smaller character/screenplay driven drama?

If so, that actually might work in Oppenheimer's favor if that's the main competition. They could do a split where even if "Past Lives" wins Best Pic, an acting award or 2, and Best Original Screenplay - they can also give Oppenheimer Best Director, maybe 1 acting award, and a bunch of tech awards.

Like I said, if Oppenheimer loses Best Pic but wins Director + a bunch of tech stuff like Gravity, I'd be happy. Honestly - I at least want Nolan to win an Oscar for it this year.

nightfury93 wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 1:39 pm

bootsy wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 1:31 pm

I can actually see Past Lives being the main competition. I think Killers of the Flower Moon has letdown potential similar to The Irishman. People see the stars, director and think it's automatic. This is not me saying it's going to be the Irishman but let's wait and see first.

I haven't seen much with that film, though I'd like to see it at some point. Is it a smaller character/screenplay driven drama?

If so, that actually might work in Oppenheimer's favor if that's the main competition. They could do a split where even if "Past Lives" wins Best Pic, an acting award or 2, and Best Original Screenplay - they can also give Oppenheimer Best Director, maybe 1 acting award, and a bunch of tech awards.

Like I said, if Oppenheimer loses Best Pic but wins Director + a bunch of tech stuff like Gravity, I'd be happy. Honestly - I at least want Nolan to win an Oscar for it this year.

Past Lives fits the narrative of what has won Best Pic the last few years. Non-white, smaller budget, marginalized community, sort of feel good narrative. Someone mentioned in this thread that Oppenheimer might not win because of these reasons. It's very possible but it's also possible that Oscars say enough and give it to a big budgeted, well known director/stars type movie to go against the narrative of the past few years.

bootsy wrote: ↑

July 29th, 2023, 2:14 pm

Past Lives fits the narrative of what has won Best Pic the last few years. Non-white, smaller budget, marginalized community, sort of feel good narrative. Someone mentioned in this thread that Oppenheimer might not win because of these reasons. It's very possible but it's also possible that Oscars say enough and give to a big budgeted, well known director/stars type movie to go against the narrative of the past few years.

I'm probably just a delusional fanboy but imho if there is any filmmaker who can buck the trend it's Nolan because of how much appeal he has in the film industry and the general public. Like I said - I think he's going to have his own backers come awards season given the influence he's had on young people getting into film.
I do want to see "Past Lives" though. But like I said - I just want Nolan to get at least 1 Oscar, lol.