Box Office

The upcoming epic thriller based on J. Robert Oppenheimer, the enigmatic man who must risk destroying the world in order to save it.
User avatar
Oku
Posts: 3648
Joined: May 2012
Ace wrote:
April 29th, 2022, 3:11 pm
Marvel has now moved the sequel for Captain Marvel to the week after Oppenheimer instead of Ant-Man 3.
That's a big deal in terms of affecting Oppenheimer's IMAX release.

Because look at this (slide 9): https://imaxcorporation.gcs-web.com/sta ... b13bf9b2c4

Notice the conspicuous absence of Ant-Man 3 on that line-up, which suggests that IMAX was ready to forgo/downsize an IMAX release for Ant-Man 3 in favor of giving Oppenheimer a longer IMAX run.

And that lines up with precedent. That would give Oppenheimer roughly a month of IMAX exclusivity before Blue Beetle in August, similar to the one that, say, Dunkirk got in 2017.

Now I don't imagine giving up MCU money is easy, but Ant-Man movies have always been on the lower grossing side of the franchise, so if IMAX had to downsize on any MCU film, it makes sense that that would be the one.

Not to mention, as far as I'm aware, Ant-Man 3 has not been filmed with digital IMAX cameras, so IMAX loses no real 'investment' on the technical front, either.

But the Ant-Man 3 and The Marvels release date swap completely changes the dynamics of all that.

Captain Marvel grossed $1.1 billion, which is nearly double what Ant-Man 2 made. No sane company would downsize on the what is sure to be easy profit of a sequel to a billion dollar movie.

And unlike Ant-Man 3, The Marvels has been filmed entirely with digital IMAX cameras, which I imagine guarantees a lengthy IMAX window and heavy promotion.

Now that's a one-two wallop of a punch if I've ever seen one.

There's no way Oppenheimer only gets one week of IMAX exclusivity when IMAX was all but prepared to drop Ant-Man 3 to give Oppenheimer an entire month. But at the same time, now that The Marvels has taken Ant-Man 3's place, there's also no way that The Marvels is not getting a big IMAX release and heavy IMAX promotion either.

Something's got to give, and it won't be pretty.

User avatar
Posts: 13321
Joined: February 2011
All three big studios who worked with Nolan previously want a piece of him now huh? lol

Posts: 1345
Joined: January 2013
I think it's more that late July is usually prime box office real estate for big Hollywood Blockbusters, it's been good to Nolan in the past, but is Oppenheimer really that type of movie? It may be better suited to be an awards player...doing the early fall film festivals or release in limited in December for qualifying run and expand in January.

User avatar
Posts: 2770
Joined: December 2016
Same comments were made about Dunkirk before it came out. A summer release ended up being very fitting and the movie did well.

I keep saying this over and over: Everyone assumes it’s a straight up biopic, but we haven’t read the screenplay and we don’t know how he’ll approach the story.

User avatar
Posts: 590
Joined: November 2019
radewart wrote:
April 30th, 2022, 7:27 pm
I think it's more that late July is usually prime box office real estate for big Hollywood Blockbusters, it's been good to Nolan in the past, but is Oppenheimer really that type of movie? It may be better suited to be an awards player...doing the early fall film festivals or release in limited in December for qualifying run and expand in January.
Like Dunkirk, I think Nolan's and studios' logic is that putting a potential award race contender in summer is counter programming, because as dangerous as the other movies look for Oppie's box office, all those movies are typical summer movies,it might be to Nolan's benefit.

Posts: 1345
Joined: January 2013
A Borges man wrote:
April 30th, 2022, 8:01 pm
radewart wrote:
April 30th, 2022, 7:27 pm
I think it's more that late July is usually prime box office real estate for big Hollywood Blockbusters, it's been good to Nolan in the past, but is Oppenheimer really that type of movie? It may be better suited to be an awards player...doing the early fall film festivals or release in limited in December for qualifying run and expand in January.
Like Dunkirk, I think Nolan's and studios' logic is that putting a potential award race contender in summer is counter programming, because as dangerous as the other movies look for Oppie's box office, all those movies are typical summer movies,it might be to Nolan's benefit.
Yes, while a critical and awards player, Dunkirk as a war movie, had an action element to it with the battle scenes to sell it to summer mainstream audiences. Is Oppenheimer going to have enough of that to compete and not be overwhelmed by the big, showy fx-filled pictures being released around it?

Also, to be clear, I'm not criticizing Oppenheimer overall as a project. I think it has potential to be a really great movie and am looking forward to it, I just wonder if that's the best release date.
Last edited by radewart on April 30th, 2022, 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Forum Pro
Posts: 155
Joined: May 2020
That IMAX ppt is very interesting for sure. Makes me bring this up again, perhaps they'll do staggered showtimes? Like once The Marvels releases, opening weekend it gets all the IMAX screens but after that we'll see something like -
6:00PM "The Marvels"
8:30PM "Oppenheimer"
11PM "The Marvels"

I've seen showtimes like that before so who's to say Disney and Universal can't reach some compromise like that. I'm going to assume Nolan still has some sort of good relationship with Disney since his prologues have been paired with two of their past films by now and Opp's will most likely be paired with Avatar: The Way of Water (if there is one).

User avatar
Forum Pro
Posts: 155
Joined: May 2020
radewart wrote:
April 30th, 2022, 8:15 pm
A Borges man wrote:
April 30th, 2022, 8:01 pm
radewart wrote:
April 30th, 2022, 7:27 pm
I think it's more that late July is usually prime box office real estate for big Hollywood Blockbusters, it's been good to Nolan in the past, but is Oppenheimer really that type of movie? It may be better suited to be an awards player...doing the early fall film festivals or release in limited in December for qualifying run and expand in January.
Like Dunkirk, I think Nolan's and studios' logic is that putting a potential award race contender in summer is counter programming, because as dangerous as the other movies look for Oppie's box office, all those movies are typical summer movies,it might be to Nolan's benefit.
Yes, while a critical and awards player, Dunkirk as a war movie, had an action element to it with the battle scenes to sell it to summer mainstream audiences. Is Oppenheimer going to have enough of that to compete and not be overwhelmed by the big, showy fx-filled pictures being released around it?

Also, to be clear, I'm not criticizing Oppenheimer overall as a project. I think it has potential to be a really great movie and am looking forward to it, I just wonder if that's the best release date.
On top of that, we know that part of it will be in B&W. I'm afraid of that deterring audiences away cause mainstream moviegoers tend to shy away from that. It really all depends on the marketing for this movie. If the trailers show how unique the IMAX and B&W photography could be, on top of the stacked cast and a compelling story, hopefully WOM leading up to its release does a lot of heavy lifting.

Posts: 61
Joined: April 2022
Tarssauce wrote:
April 30th, 2022, 7:58 pm
Same comments were made about Dunkirk before it came out. A summer release ended up being very fitting and the movie did well.

I keep saying this over and over: Everyone assumes it’s a straight up biopic, but we haven’t read the screenplay and we don’t know how he’ll approach the story.
The studio described it as a thriller too. So, I'm not expecting your average biographical drama.
Universal Pictures is distributing “Oppenheimer,” which the studio describes as an “epic thriller that thrusts audiences into the pulse-pounding paradox of the enigmatic man who must risk destroying the world in order to save it.”
https://variety.com/2021/film/news/robe ... 235102846/

User avatar
Forum Pro
Posts: 155
Joined: May 2020
EOLB wrote:
April 30th, 2022, 8:37 pm
Tarssauce wrote:
April 30th, 2022, 7:58 pm
Same comments were made about Dunkirk before it came out. A summer release ended up being very fitting and the movie did well.

I keep saying this over and over: Everyone assumes it’s a straight up biopic, but we haven’t read the screenplay and we don’t know how he’ll approach the story.
The studio described it as a thriller too. So, I'm not expecting your average biographical drama.
Universal Pictures is distributing “Oppenheimer,” which the studio describes as an “epic thriller that thrusts audiences into the pulse-pounding paradox of the enigmatic man who must risk destroying the world in order to save it.”
https://variety.com/2021/film/news/robe ... 235102846/
One has to assume that they guy who gave us Inception + Interstellar (not your average sci-fi) and Dunkirk (not your average war film) is also going to subvert expectations with a biopic, in the best way possible.

Post Reply