Okay, these are my profit line calculations. Somebody dispute me:
The studios will pay Nolan per his 20% first-dollar gross contract. Nobody can dispute this, as even Variety says as much (they don't say 20% but that is officially the word, and they might not have known at the time). So what I'll first mention is pre-Nolan payment.
Domestically, Universal has taken in $104.6 million (60% of 43% of $405.6 mil).
Internationally, Universal has taken in $92.5 million (40% of 57% of $405.6 mil).
This total is $197.1 million (not using early rounded calculations).
Okay, so the studio has made that much money.
The studio will owe $200 due to production and marketing budgets, which means before paying Nolan they still have not yet found the green outside of their own budget. They are still $2.9 million short.
However, they will also owe Nolan 20% of $197.1 million, which is $39.4 million.
197.1 - 200 - 39.4 = -$42.3 million
This is how much Universal is in the red, if the box office stopped making money on Oppenheimer at end of day Sunday.
Does this mean they only need $42.3 million more to break even? No, because those percentages taken from domestic and international plus owing Nolan 20% of whatever they make.
What is the number now that international takes in 57%? The line is now about $515 million (at which point Universal will take in $250 million and owe Nolan $50 million of that, which is 20 percent).
I don't know why previous posters have been disputing these numbers. Look at them again and tell me what I'm missing. I'm laying it out in front of you cold. My change from $490 million to $515 million came from the change in international box office weight.
Last edited by MuffinMcFluffin on July 31st, 2023, 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The fact that the film is 99% certain of grossing over $600M worldwide and likely to go over $700M as well at this point is nothing short of mind blowing.
Let's let this guy settle the score for y'all doubters regarding box office profit (go to 26:35).
The only thing I have wrong in my previous calculation is the second week studio take for domestic box office is 55% instead of 60%. I didn't know that this shrinks to 50% by the third week either (I used to think it was always 50% for studios, minus Disney negotiating 60% time to time), so in future calculations I am taking this all into consideration.
So unless you are going to discount Dan Murrell or you think that I am Dan Murrell, I'd like for some of you to not tell me that I need to wait till the end of the year for Deadline reports or misread a Variety article that said "at least $400 million," and stop choosing $400 million as a close or rough estimate of its profitability line.
Regardless, this movie will make profit because it is doing tremendously, and I couldn't be happier for it. I came out of the woodwork to help the faithful NF members understand when it will profit, and I was dismayed when greeted by "Herp derp artikul sez sumting dat i cudnt re@d rite."
Possible Variety was referring to 400m theatrically and then ancillary revenue streams (cable TV deals, home video, VOD sales, etc) covering the rest....? Movies don't stop making money after the box office run, and those ancillary streams tend to have huge margins that cover large portions if not all of the marketing budget. Regardless, this film will make a profit theatrically as is.
Possible Variety was referring to 400m theatrically and then ancillary revenue streams (cable TV deals, home video, VOD sales, etc) covering the rest....? Movies don't stop making money after the box office run, and those ancillary streams tend to have huge margins that cover large portions if not all of the marketing budget. Regardless, this film will make a profit theatrically as is.
That still doesn't guarantee profit. Or it does, but that is a misleading statement then.
And I'm not saying Variety was wrong, they're just not accurate. They said "at least $400 million," and $515 million (which is now undershot due to the decline in studio take after the first week) fits in that range. They simply knew that because Nolan would have to be paid, that stating anything underneath $400 million for the time being would've been wrong.
What myself and Dan Murrell are stating are now proper ballpark estimates. Nolan's cut will seethe deep into this, and it's now prospering more internationally than domestically so the studio's take will be less than 50% of the overall box office.
I like Dan Murrel, he's very passionate but ultimately he's just a youtuber. I wouldn't take his word as gospel as he's not much more than a glorified hobbyist and I definitely would always trust a Variety, THR or Deadline reporter over him. And even he says he gets his calculations from what he heard online, not what he confirmed at the source because he doesn't have such connections.
His metrics are VERY conservative in terms of studio takes and both he and theater owners have said this. The theater chains take much less revenue from ticket sales than what we think and what he calculates "on the safe side", as they make most of their money on concessions sales rather than ticket sales.
I like Dan Murrel, he's very passionate but ultimately he's just a youtuber. I wouldn't take his word as gospel as he's not much more than a glorified hobbyist and I definitely would always trust a Variety, THR or Deadline reporter over him. And even he says he gets his calculations from what he heard online, not what he confirmed at the source because he doesn't have such connections.
His metrics are VERY conservative in terms of studio takes and both he and theater owners have said this. The theater chains take much less revenue from ticket sales than what we think and what he calculates "on the safe side", as they make most of their money on concessions sales rather than ticket sales.
Everything that I stated was before his video was even recorded. Why are you disputing the math, or why aren't you countering the basic "50% of box office" number that I am then stating?
What did Variety say? I want you to tell me exactly what they said, because I can tell you and I have stated it post after post. They said that Nolan will have to be paid (and their conservative value was $50 million) and that AT LEAST $400 million will have to be earned for box office profit. They were two years out and didn't have anything else to state at the time. Have they posted something since then? Did they claim yesterday that "Oppenheimer has made over $400 million worldwide and is now profitable"?
My point of posting the first time is because somebody basically mentioned "If this movie makes $400 million then it will be profitable," which is complete and utter bullshit. Nobody still has yet to even mention Nolan's 20% take. Can anyone tell me how much the movie would have to make to then pay Nolan back 20% and still make money off the film? If you have trouble finding it, I've already mentioned it several times.
I was using that video to support my own findings, that once again somebody else on this god forsaken forum can be more accurate about domestic vs. international and Nolan's first-dollar gross.
