Thanks for the detailed reply. oh, I do not disagree about Tenet, recently there was a post on Reddit saying that it is still the highest grossing original, non IP based and non sequel/spinoff film in the post pandemic era. It shows Nolan's pull despite Tenet coming up during a time where many theaters were closed or working 50% capacity not to mention many people were way more hesitant to go out too. So yeah, in terms of regular times it can be seen as a flop by some people but it’s not really one, if you ask me, when we consider circumstances and how it looks now in retrospect.DylanHoang wrote: ↑February 1st, 2023, 1:20 pm
Above 500M is a safe bet, I doubt 800M though, even Interstellar wasn't able to reach that. After several re-releases it's made 773M which is incredible though. The first, last and only non-IP Nolan film to break past 800M was Inception.
I'm going to bring back Tenet as the main argument. Yes, it "flopped" by definition of a flop, but for an original film that came out when half the world's theatres were closed, the ones that were open had limited capacity and a significant portion of the population wasn't interested in going out, it did very well. It only made 30M less than Black Adam, a superhero blockbuster with Dwayne Johnson. Its numbers were pretty close to both Black Widow and Eternals. Granted Black Widow had a day & date release on Disney+ as well. Tenet's 363M in those circumstances, imagine how well Oppenheimer can do when the theatre-going lifestyle is relatively back to normal. Also, Universal has been marketing the movie like crazy. Its already had TV spots in front of big games and it had a big push in front of Avatar: The Way of Water, the movie where the boomer/gen-x demographic returned to theatres.
Now, there's the argument that this isn't a original, mind-boggling sci-fi movie that looks "sick" for lack of a better word, so perhaps appeal isn't as strong. But as much as some people will try to deny, his name still brings people to theatres. Flop or not, Tenet proved that. Also take into consideration the circumstances it will be releasing. Yes, it's a competitive landscape, but it will have IMAX exclusivity for at least two weeks (though it might share the premium format with Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning: Part 1. In fact, it could have up to a month of IMAX screens before Blue Beetle drops August 18 (even then, it might still share IMAX screens). I don't see any of the big movies coming out after Oppenheimer taking over - The Meg 2 (probably will be Dolby) and Haunted Mansion (Dolby as well). Someone commented earlier in this thread that The Marvels wouldn't be getting an IMAX release, but I haven't seen that confirmed anywhere. If that is the case though, a month in IMAX screens would be huge. I see this doing 500M+, especially when his *flop* made almost 400M in the circumstances I listed above. Most importantly, 500M would be amazing. I'm dreading the silly conversations deeming this a failure if that's all it'll make.
That said, I do think that it seems somewhat difficult for Oppenheimer to make 500+ since it appears to be more drama thriller possibly psychological and whatnot. Dunkirk's heart pounding nature made a lot of people have a gripping feeling towards it I would say despite its experimental impulses imo. Oppenheimer it’s hard to put for me on whether it will have a big captivating thrill for a wider audience but it’s Nolan so one never knows. I do hope the film does 500+ or more though. Your explanation on how Oppenheimer can make 500+ seems possible to me too. We will have to wait and see. Dunkirk surprised me a lot anyway so yeah.