I saw a review call the divisive and box office bomb Babylon "The kind of original big-budget hard-R period epic that we desperately need to see much more of in the current Hollywood landscape".

Oppenheimer will fit all those categories aside from hard R and original since it is based on a true story and will definitely get a PG-13 rating (if Dunkirk managed to get a PG-13 rating this will easily get one). Plus Nolan isn't the kind of director who I'd associate with generic prestige Oscar Bait cinema and from what I've seen of the marketing it won't be your standard checklist of events biopic. Hopefully it's closer to The Social Network or First Man than anything.

But hopefully it's a standout of it's genre and it encourages ambition rather than playing it safe.

P.S. I was checking the screens at the cinema I work at and I saw the opening of I Wanna Dance With Somebody which literally begins with Whitney about to give an onstage performance to a crowd of people just like Bohemian Rhapsody and Walk the Line, before jumping back in time to earlier in their life just like BoRap and Elvis and so many other films in the genre. They clearly haven't listened to people who are so beyond tired of this formula.

blackColumn wrote: ↑

December 28th, 2022, 7:01 pm

Nicolaslabra wrote: ↑

December 28th, 2022, 4:59 pm

Demoph wrote: ↑

December 28th, 2022, 7:25 am

That's why Titanic and Terminator are well known as big fox-office failures.

Ah come on, those where the friggin 90`s, the industry has changed so much,plus all those terminator sequels Cameron produced are reall box offices destroyers right ?
its also probably why James has avatar 6 and 7 planned out already.

Do you think Nolan can direct two original movies that gross two billion dollars each?

Irrelevant, i was never comparing him to Nolan, proving Nolan has no clout is your struggle, struggle on that alone.

Nicolaslabra wrote: ↑

December 31st, 2022, 2:18 pm

blackColumn wrote: ↑

December 28th, 2022, 7:01 pm

Nicolaslabra wrote: ↑

December 28th, 2022, 4:59 pm

Ah come on, those where the friggin 90`s, the industry has changed so much,plus all those terminator sequels Cameron produced are reall box offices destroyers right ?
its also probably why James has avatar 6 and 7 planned out already.

Do you think Nolan can direct two original movies that gross two billion dollars each?

Irrelevant, i was never comparing him to Nolan, proving Nolan has no clout is your struggle, struggle on that alone.

Nolan has highest clout (though far less than he used to have). You are reading more than I am saying.

The box office this is going to be hard to predict. I think 150m would be fantastic. 100-120m domestically would be good. Last year the biggest dramas were the woman king at 67m and Everything Eveywhere at 68m. This looks to more have suspense atmosphere but dramas have taken such a hard hit. Hopefully dramas can start at bounce back at the box office.

Dramas have basically been relegated to Streaming and I think this trend will continue for quite some time. It might become a new normal where cinemas will mostly show blockbusters and horrors (mostly high adrenaline, "fun ride" movies) and streaming will show dramas and comedies (which have an even harder time now at cinemas). Obviously this status quo will probably change once people get sick of it but for now this looks like where we are heading.

The Marvels is apparently not getting an imax release. Reality check for all marvel fanboys lol.

I believe it will do between 500 million to 800 million.

CaviezelReese wrote: ↑

January 31st, 2023, 2:14 pm

I believe it will do between 500 million to 800 million.

Why? Genuinely curious. Because I’m thinking between 300 and 400.

Paradoxicalparabola wrote: ↑

February 1st, 2023, 11:50 am

CaviezelReese wrote: ↑

January 31st, 2023, 2:14 pm

I believe it will do between 500 million to 800 million.

Why? Genuinely curious. Because I’m thinking between 300 and 400.

Above 500M is a safe bet, I doubt 800M though, even Interstellar wasn't able to reach that. After several re-releases it's made 773M which is incredible though. The first, last and only non-IP Nolan film to break past 800M was Inception.

I'm going to bring back Tenet as the main argument. Yes, it "flopped" by definition of a flop, but for an original film that came out when half the world's theatres were closed, the ones that were open had limited capacity and a significant portion of the population wasn't interested in going out, it did very well. It only made 30M less than Black Adam, a superhero blockbuster with Dwayne Johnson. Its numbers were pretty close to both Black Widow and Eternals. Granted Black Widow had a day & date release on Disney+ as well. Tenet's 363M in those circumstances, imagine how well Oppenheimer can do when the theatre-going lifestyle is relatively back to normal. Also, Universal has been marketing the movie like crazy. Its already had TV spots in front of big games and it had a big push in front of Avatar: The Way of Water, the movie where the boomer/gen-x demographic returned to theatres.

Now, there's the argument that this isn't a original, mind-boggling sci-fi movie that looks "sick" for lack of a better word, so perhaps appeal isn't as strong. But as much as some people will try to deny, his name still brings people to theatres. Flop or not, Tenet proved that. Also take into consideration the circumstances it will be releasing. Yes, it's a competitive landscape, but it will have IMAX exclusivity for at least two weeks (though it might share the premium format with Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning: Part 1. In fact, it could have up to a month of IMAX screens before Blue Beetle drops August 18 (even then, it might still share IMAX screens). I don't see any of the big movies coming out after Oppenheimer taking over - The Meg 2 (probably will be Dolby) and Haunted Mansion (Dolby as well). Someone commented earlier in this thread that The Marvels wouldn't be getting an IMAX release, but I haven't seen that confirmed anywhere. If that is the case though, a month in IMAX screens would be huge. I see this doing 500M+, especially when his *flop* made almost 400M in the circumstances I listed above. Most importantly, 500M would be amazing. I'm dreading the silly conversations deeming this a failure if that's all it'll make.

Box office talk is fun and all and I hope Oppenheimer does great, but let's all remember it's not the end all be all. Lots of all-time great directors have great movies that have underperformed (or even flopped).

It's just that Nolan's got such a good box office track record so of course we expect a good box office run.