Box Office

The upcoming epic thriller based on J. Robert Oppenheimer, the enigmatic man who must risk destroying the world in order to save it.
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blackColumn wrote:
June 10th, 2022, 12:20 am
Top Gun Maverick is eyeing $1B ww box office. This means good things for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One.
Yeah Dead Reckoning will definitely be a hit, an interesting sell given how it openly has Part 1 in the title. Even Dune was mostly marketed as Dune and not Dune Part 1. The MI series has earned the right to have a two part finale though, so on the back of audience goodwill it will be going back to a trend that did thankfully die out around the time of Divergent 3. It was a god awful trend that resulted in lazier editing, bloated stories and worse movies as a result of wanting to make more money. But that was mostly with the book adaptations, so MI Dead Reckoning has the opportunity to be a complete film that just so happens to lead into the next one, rather than a padded out act 1. I know this has nothing to do with Oppenheimer, I'm just saying box office wise it'll interesting to see how well it does on it's own. I think Oppenheimer would be more likely to be crushed if it was the grand finale or Dead Reckoning Part 2. It being Part 1 will still get a lot of people to see it, but not as many as Part 2 or just an individual finale.

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Prediction: WB will pull The Flash and dump it on HBO Max and move Barbie to June 23.

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Insomniac wrote:
June 17th, 2022, 6:25 am
Prediction: WB will pull The Flash and dump it on HBO Max and move Barbie to June 23.
A very real possibility

Ace
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Dune 2 moved to Nov. 17, 2023 from Oct. 20, 2023. Maybe Universal could move to the October date as they wouldn’t have much competition for two weeks when some untitled Marvel movie opens.

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Ace wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 11:48 am
Dune 2 moved to Nov. 17, 2023 from Oct. 20, 2023. Maybe Universal could move to the October date as they wouldn’t have much competition for two weeks when some untitled Marvel movie opens.
October is more awards season friendly and I can see it potentially doing better at the BO in that month. But July is a lucky date for Nolan and Dunkirk managed to do quite well despite the competition. So I don't know.

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Personally I think September is the best date for Oppenheimer. There's an Equalizer film and a Quiet Place spinoff but Oppenheimer could easily slot in and claim IMAX for a month, similar to what Sully did back in 2016. Premiere the film at Toronto, Venice, etc. Taking Dune 2's old spot still means Blade or whatever MCU film takes IMAX screens a couple weeks later.

But I don't know if Nolan or Universal are just dead set on July. I think even if Oppenheimer can succeed there, they're not maximizing their opportunity. MI7 and Oppenheimer deserve longer IMAX runs than they're going to ultimately get as it currently stands. And Barbie seems like it's gonna have a big footprint too at this rate.

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While I can't deny July is incredibly packed next year and releasing it in November like 'Interstellar' probably wouldn't be a bad move, I don't see it moving. And I'm still more worried about 'Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning' than 'Barbie', to be honest.

The true test will be the marketing. I'd rather wait and see how thrilling and appealing they can make this film look.
Last edited by EOLB on June 30th, 2022, 7:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Oku
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Ace wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 11:48 am
Dune 2 moved to Nov. 17, 2023 from Oct. 20, 2023. Maybe Universal could move to the October date as they wouldn’t have much competition for two weeks when some untitled Marvel movie opens.
Of course it did. This man is physically incapable of releasing a movie at any other time than awards season lol so of course any 'delay' would have the film release even closer to awards season lmao

And yes, I know it's the studio setting the date and not Mr. Villeneuve personally. That doesn't change the fact that it's eye-rolling to see these Super-Duper-Serious directors like Mr. Villeneuve, Mr. Mendes, Mr. Wright etc. only show up when it's Oscar season, like it's their God-given right to have their Super-Duper-Serious Prestige Movie(TM) be nominated in as many categories as possible.

It's like the teacher's pet raising his/her hand at every opportunity and reminding the teacher at the end of every class that he/she forgot to give out homework. Did the student do anything wrong? Technically no. On paper, he/she is a blameless, perfect model student that everyone should strive to be like. That doesn't mean that he/she isn't annoying AF.

Look at Mr. Nolan, Mr. Peele, Mr. (Wes) Anderson, Mr. Bong, etc.. What I applaud these guys for beyond the quality of their films themselves is that their movies come out whenever, with zero cynical thought put in as to how many self-congratulatory statues they can rack up.

Waitedalongtime wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 12:25 pm
Ace wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 11:48 am
Dune 2 moved to Nov. 17, 2023 from Oct. 20, 2023. Maybe Universal could move to the October date as they wouldn’t have much competition for two weeks when some untitled Marvel movie opens.
October is more awards season friendly and I can see it potentially doing better at the BO in that month. But July is a lucky date for Nolan and Dunkirk managed to do quite well despite the competition. So I don't know.
Objectively speaking, October definitely is the better date. Less competition so better box office chances, and a HUGE recency bias boost meaning potentially more Oscar noms and wins.

In fact, I'd even go so far as to say that Dunkirk probably could have made more with a fall 2017 release as well, and been nominated for and won more with the recency bias boost.

And yet, precisely for that reason, I applaud them for not doing that (...yet, that is), and sticking to the July date. It's just so refreshing to have a prestige super-duper-serious drama pic refuse to walk the same beaten path that every one of them follows.

Time wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 12:26 pm
Personally I think September is the best date for Oppenheimer. There's an Equalizer film and a Quiet Place spinoff but Oppenheimer could easily slot in and claim IMAX for a month, similar to what Sully did back in 2016. Premiere the film at Toronto, Venice, etc. Taking Dune 2's old spot still means Blade or whatever MCU film takes IMAX screens a couple weeks later.

But I don't know if Nolan or Universal are just dead set on July. I think even if Oppenheimer can succeed there, they're not maximizing their opportunity. MI7 and Oppenheimer deserve longer IMAX runs than they're going to ultimately get as it currently stands. And Barbie seems like it's gonna have a big footprint too at this rate.
The man is a traditionalist. He is a traditionalist in the obvious ways (shooting on film, as little CGI as possible, etc.), but also in less obvious ways, like release date. September is traditionally a prominent dump month. He would never consent to having his movie released there, TENET being the exception due to obvious reasons lol

EOLB wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 1:07 pm
While I can't deny July is incredibly packed next and releasing it November like 'Interstellar' probably wouldn't be a bad move, I don't see it moving. And I'm still more worried about 'Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning' than 'Barbie', to be honest.

The true test will be the marketing. I'd rather wait and see how thrilling and appealing they can make this film look.
That reminds me of when Disney and Paramount worked out a deal back in 2015 to avoid audience confusion surrounding the similarly-titled Rogue Nation and Rogue One.

No idea how that's relevant here, but maybe a similar deal could happen again? :oops:

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Oku wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 6:23 pm
Ace wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 11:48 am
Dune 2 moved to Nov. 17, 2023 from Oct. 20, 2023. Maybe Universal could move to the October date as they wouldn’t have much competition for two weeks when some untitled Marvel movie opens.
Of course it did. This man is physically incapable of releasing a movie at any other time than awards season lol so of course any 'delay' would have the film release even closer to awards season lmao

And yes, I know it's the studio setting the date and not Mr. Villeneuve personally. That doesn't change the fact that it's eye-rolling to see these Super-Duper-Serious directors like Mr. Villeneuve, Mr. Mendes, Mr. Wright etc. only show up when it's Oscar season, like it's their God-given right to have their Super-Duper-Serious Prestige Movie(TM) be nominated in as many categories as possible.

It's like the teacher's pet raising his/her hand at every opportunity and reminding the teacher at the end of every class that he/she forgot to give out homework. Did the student do anything wrong? Technically no. On paper, he/she is a blameless, perfect model student that everyone should strive to be like. That doesn't mean that he/she isn't annoying AF.

Look at Mr. Nolan, Mr. Peele, Mr. (Wes) Anderson, Mr. Bong, etc.. What I applaud these guys for beyond the quality of their films themselves is that their movies come out whenever, with zero cynical thought put in as to how many self-congratulatory statues they can rack up.

Waitedalongtime wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 12:25 pm
Ace wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 11:48 am
Dune 2 moved to Nov. 17, 2023 from Oct. 20, 2023. Maybe Universal could move to the October date as they wouldn’t have much competition for two weeks when some untitled Marvel movie opens.
October is more awards season friendly and I can see it potentially doing better at the BO in that month. But July is a lucky date for Nolan and Dunkirk managed to do quite well despite the competition. So I don't know.
Objectively speaking, October definitely is the better date. Less competition so better box office chances, and a HUGE recency bias boost meaning potentially more Oscar noms and wins.

In fact, I'd even go so far as to say that Dunkirk probably could have made more with a fall 2017 release as well, and been nominated for and won more with the recency bias boost.

And yet, precisely for that reason, I applaud them for not doing that (...yet, that is), and sticking to the July date. It's just so refreshing to have a prestige super-duper-serious drama pic refuse to walk the same beaten path that every one of them follows.

Time wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 12:26 pm
Personally I think September is the best date for Oppenheimer. There's an Equalizer film and a Quiet Place spinoff but Oppenheimer could easily slot in and claim IMAX for a month, similar to what Sully did back in 2016. Premiere the film at Toronto, Venice, etc. Taking Dune 2's old spot still means Blade or whatever MCU film takes IMAX screens a couple weeks later.

But I don't know if Nolan or Universal are just dead set on July. I think even if Oppenheimer can succeed there, they're not maximizing their opportunity. MI7 and Oppenheimer deserve longer IMAX runs than they're going to ultimately get as it currently stands. And Barbie seems like it's gonna have a big footprint too at this rate.
The man is a traditionalist. He is a traditionalist in the obvious ways (shooting on film, as little CGI as possible, etc.), but also in less obvious ways, like release date. September is traditionally a prominent dump month. He would never consent to having his movie released there, TENET being the exception due to obvious reasons lol

EOLB wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 1:07 pm
While I can't deny July is incredibly packed next and releasing it November like 'Interstellar' probably wouldn't be a bad move, I don't see it moving. And I'm still more worried about 'Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning' than 'Barbie', to be honest.

The true test will be the marketing. I'd rather wait and see how thrilling and appealing they can make this film look.
That reminds me of when Disney and Paramount worked out a deal back in 2015 to avoid audience confusion surrounding the similarly-titled Rogue Nation and Rogue One.

No idea how that's relevant here, but maybe a similar deal could happen again? :oops:
terrific post

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Oku wrote:
June 30th, 2022, 6:23 pm

The man is a traditionalist. He is a traditionalist in the obvious ways (shooting on film, as little CGI as possible, etc.), but also in less obvious ways, like release date. September is traditionally a prominent dump month. He would never consent to having his movie released there, TENET being the exception due to obvious reasons lol
There really isn't dump months these days anymore, only certain weeks, like Super Bowl weekend, the week after New Year's, or the weeks leading up to Labor Day. Anything can succeed in any given month. But sure, tradition says September was not as popular before. And tradition is good sometimes, and sometimes it isn't. I think people pay too much mind to stuff like 'dump months'. People don't have an aversion to seeing movies in September, the product just has to be good. Sometimes you have to be able to adapt, and while Nolan has had a pretty unprecedented run of success in July, he's working with less cache than he's had in probably some time following Tenet against some of the stiffest competition of his career with quite possibly his least general audience friendly film since the Prestige.

Again, this isn't to say Oppenheimer can't succeed there. But I suspect it's leaving some money off the table by coming out in such a packed spot. I can't imagine Universal and Nolan haven't had some discussions on it, but it's their problem to solve, whether it's finding a better date or making the best of the situation. But I sure hope the film will be excellent if it's gonna stick there.

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