It's his real opinion because it's basically what happened. I love Nolan and I really dug TENET, but its release is a giant factor in WB doing this shit
Tenet - Box Office Autopsy
watch meNicolaslabra wrote: ↑December 3rd, 2020, 8:45 pmVader, i cant see how any of that is in any way Chris`s fault, and you cant blame him for defending something wich he believes in so much either, we should be mad at the fact that studios chose to protect their economic interests and throw cinemas under the bus, using the argument of sustainability when we know how big corporations love to play the victim, its simple for them, capitalize the profits, socialize the losses, so i think its wrong to point the finger at Chris at all.
-Vader
If WB was still its own entity, I 100% guarantee you that it would have shrugged off Tenet's gross as an acceptable loss, and continued on with theatrical-first releases.
Tenet underperforming is a tangent. The real reason that this is happening is that AT&T owns WB now, and AT&T execs don't have the decades-long 'emotional investment' in the theatrical model that WB execs do.
Whether that's a plus or a minus is up to interpretation, but it boils down to AT&T execs wanting to play the long game of HBO MAX being a genuine Netflix competitor, and being willing to sacrifice WB's immediate line-up (and potentially billions in box office gross) to make that happen.
You can tell by the fact that Tenet is not mentioned once in NYT's in-depth article on the topic: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/03/busi ... o-max.html
The relevant bits:
Tenet underperforming is a tangent. The real reason that this is happening is that AT&T owns WB now, and AT&T execs don't have the decades-long 'emotional investment' in the theatrical model that WB execs do.
Whether that's a plus or a minus is up to interpretation, but it boils down to AT&T execs wanting to play the long game of HBO MAX being a genuine Netflix competitor, and being willing to sacrifice WB's immediate line-up (and potentially billions in box office gross) to make that happen.
You can tell by the fact that Tenet is not mentioned once in NYT's in-depth article on the topic: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/03/busi ... o-max.html
The relevant bits:
[...]
AT&T, which owns WarnerMedia, also has made it clear that Mr. Kilar’s top priority is building HBO Max into a full-fledged competitor to Netflix, which has 73 million subscribers in the United States and almost 200 million worldwide. HBO subscribers hit a record 38 million at the end of September, but only about 8.6 million subscribers had activated HBO Max, according to AT&T regulatory filings.
As it moves to bolster HBO Max, WarnerMedia is almost assuredly giving up hundreds of millions in box office revenue, which means that some of its big-budget movies ($200 million or more in production costs, plus tens of millions of dollars in marketing spending) will lose money, regardless of their reception by audiences. But AT&T is mostly interested in the financial windfall that it stands to make in the longer term by turning HBO Max into a success.
[...]
I am aware of the AT&T situation. They went to war with WB (and Nolan) in the press over wanting to delay Tenet. Nolan bulldogged them into doing it anyway. Then Tenet lost somewhere between 50 million to 100 million dollars, a lot of which is due to domestic underperformance.
If you don't think that has a major influence on their decision to eliminate a domestic release of their entire calendar you're nuts.
-Vader
If you don't think that has a major influence on their decision to eliminate a domestic release of their entire calendar you're nuts.
-Vader
Posts: 1230
Joined:
January 2019
Easy to blame those who try to help. Nolan may have failed, but at least he tried.
My sympathy goes to those who are crazy enough to not abandon.
Here is a video of Nolan trying to save cinema:
My sympathy goes to those who are crazy enough to not abandon.
Here is a video of Nolan trying to save cinema:
the film was going to underperform domestically, flop, whatever you want to say. had tenet been delayed indefinitely, we’d be looking at the same situation - or, just indefinite delays of everything until the theaters all shut down for good. if anything, nolan bought them time - not good enough, but the whole thing’s fucked, and i don’t think blaming what was inevitably going to happen on nolan makes much senseVader182 wrote: ↑December 3rd, 2020, 9:04 pmI am aware of the AT&T situation. They went to war with WB (and Nolan) in the press over wanting to delay Tenet. Nolan bulldogged them into doing it anyway. Then Tenet lost somewhere between 50 million to 100 million dollars, a lot of which is due to domestic underperformance.
If you don't think that has a major influence on their decision to eliminate a domestic release of their entire calendar you're nuts.
-Vader
personally, i don’t buy the economic argument for streaming anyways, but that’s another discussion
When I say Tenet underperformed, I mean it did well below WB's own conservative estimates. They expected it could turn a minor profit or at least break even, likely in the 400-500 million range. They did not expect a potential 9 figure loss.
Tenet changed the conversation from speculative "movies could be profitable if released carefully" to "they probably won't be" and that 100% is influencing AT&T, Disney, Sony, MGM, and so on. That's why they got so frightened they delayed all 2020 releases or put them on VOD. It's because of Tenet's performance. If Tenet broke even or even turned a profit, I'd bet a million bucks AT&T wouldn't be pushing HBO Max so aggressively.
The writing is on the wall.
-Vader
Tenet changed the conversation from speculative "movies could be profitable if released carefully" to "they probably won't be" and that 100% is influencing AT&T, Disney, Sony, MGM, and so on. That's why they got so frightened they delayed all 2020 releases or put them on VOD. It's because of Tenet's performance. If Tenet broke even or even turned a profit, I'd bet a million bucks AT&T wouldn't be pushing HBO Max so aggressively.
The writing is on the wall.
-Vader
Obviously if Tenet had done fantastic, AT&T would have been forced to back off and continue let WB do its thing, and everything would be all roses.
But, and don't quote me on this, I'm pretty sure that Tenet lost less money than Mulan, which pre-pandemic-wise would have been the bigger grosser.
Now, if WB were its own entity, they could have easily spun that as an affirmation of the theatrical model and shrugged off the losses as acceptable.
My point is that yes, Tenet underperformed, but nowhere near the extent to justify a year's worth of films to be moved to streaming, something that not even theatrical-hostile studios like Universal are doing.
So there is clearly more to it than just the surface-level Tenet-blame-game.
But, and don't quote me on this, I'm pretty sure that Tenet lost less money than Mulan, which pre-pandemic-wise would have been the bigger grosser.
Now, if WB were its own entity, they could have easily spun that as an affirmation of the theatrical model and shrugged off the losses as acceptable.
My point is that yes, Tenet underperformed, but nowhere near the extent to justify a year's worth of films to be moved to streaming, something that not even theatrical-hostile studios like Universal are doing.
So there is clearly more to it than just the surface-level Tenet-blame-game.
Last edited by Oku on December 3rd, 2020, 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
There's no denying that this is a reaction to Tenet's performance. That's their solution to the low box office performance in the US. Markets overseas performed as expected which is one of the main reasons why WB and Nolan decided to put Tenet out. And it would've performed much better without Covid.Vader182 wrote: ↑December 3rd, 2020, 8:39 pmTheaters in North America are going to be devastated because of this decision. Other studios may take a similar path, too.
And big surprise(!) Tenet did well ish overseas and bombed hard in the states. Of course this is a reaction to Tenet's performance. That's not even debatable.
-Vader
It's not like theaters were full to the max with Tenet and now theaters (in the US specifically) will be robbed of that with this new approach. Obviously, some people will be persuaded to just stay at home instead of going to a theater but this will win over people who don't want to risk it. People who are devoted to the theatrical experience will seek it out.
So, I kindly disagree with your statement about WB abandoning the theatrical exhibition when it's a simultaneous release.
Posts: 647
Joined:
November 2019
Yes, this is probably a response to Tenet's performance too. That said, it’s already done so there’s not much to do about it. This tragic notion of what will happen could vary a lot depending on development of the pandemic. Some people here need to relax. Whatever happens, it's inevitable to have some sort of change.
This is weird but funny.
This is weird but funny.
