Tenet - Box Office Autopsy

An original action espionage film releasing in IMAX on August 12, 2020
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Something to keep in mind with Mulan’s Chinese release is that the Chinese government decides when Hollywood movies get to come out. Remember back in 2012 when they determined The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises would come out on the same day and Warner Bros opted to not even release Rises there?

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Vader182 wrote:
September 4th, 2020, 6:43 am
Tenet is already at a user score of 84% on RT (Interstellar is at 86%) and it's just going to drop more and more from there. These scores seldom go up over time. Metacritic user scores are at an 8, already lower than Rises, Interstellar, etc. The extremely low (for Nolan) IMDB speaks for itself. If Tenet succeeds at the box office, it won't be because of its positive word of mouth.

Let me put this all in another perspective: if many of us, the most biased, forgiving, pro-Nolan sample size out there are giving his movie 8s, imagine how average audiences will feel.

These way below projection numbers will feed into this.


-Vader

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Vader182 wrote:
September 4th, 2020, 6:43 am
Tenet is already at a user score of 84% on RT (Interstellar is at 86%) and it's just going to drop more and more from there. These scores seldom go up over time. Metacritic user scores are at an 8, already lower than Rises, Interstellar, etc. The extremely low (for Nolan) IMDB speaks for itself. If Tenet succeeds at the box office, it won't be because of its positive word of mouth.

Let me put this all in another perspective: if many of us, the most biased, forgiving, pro-Nolan sample size out there are giving his movie 8s, imagine how average audiences will feel.

These way below projection numbers will feed into this.


-Vader
My thoughts as well.

Initially I was very pleased that Tenet was a more 'difficult' film. At this point in his career I don't want safe or unambitious stuff from Nolan, he has made populist hits for 15 years, I don't crave for another Dark Knight. As a cinefile a divisive auteur wank like Tenet is sooo much more interesting to talk about.

But I hadn't considered that it might put a pause on his status within the studio system. It clearly was Nolan who pushed for this to open, so in that sense he is to blame if it flops.

Might be a good thing for his career though, this had to end one way or another, but I guess I hoped we would get a few more carte blanche efforts before he became "mortal" again, if that makes sense.

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Tenet is not a crowd pleaser unfortunately especially for the casual audience.
It might end up grossing like Blade Runner 2049

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It’s a bit of fun following RT & Audience score as the films comes out and predicting the box office, but at the end of the day it really doesn’t matter, all that matters is if you like the film, some take it too seriously.

It’s very highly rated by a lot of reputable outlets & some don’t like it. I love it but understand why people wouldn’t like it as it’s crazy complex and majority of cinema audience just want to watch easy going films like Marvel.

The box office has started well internationally as reported, but it’s always going to be an up and down due to Covid-19, almost impossible to predict. Whatever happens with the box office it’s been hugely affected by the pandemic, not much anyone can take from it.

As the poster above mentions I’d much rather Nolan did a Tenet type film than another Batman.

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Intonestellar wrote:
September 4th, 2020, 7:49 am
It’s a bit of fun following RT & Audience score as the films comes out and predicting the box office, but at the end of the day it really doesn’t matter, all that matters is if you like the film, some take it too seriously.

It’s very highly rated by a lot of reputable outlets & some don’t like it. I love it but understand why people wouldn’t like it as it’s crazy complex and majority of cinema audience just want to watch easy going films like Marvel.

The box office has started well internationally as reported, but it’s always going to be an up and down due to Covid-19, almost impossible to predict. Whatever happens with the box office it’s been hugely affected by the pandemic, not much anyone can take from it.
this is a movie with boats and explosions, it's not last year at marienbad. let's cool it with the faux-superiority.


-Vader

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Vader182 wrote:
September 4th, 2020, 7:52 am
Intonestellar wrote:
September 4th, 2020, 7:49 am
It’s a bit of fun following RT & Audience score as the films comes out and predicting the box office, but at the end of the day it really doesn’t matter, all that matters is if you like the film, some take it too seriously.

It’s very highly rated by a lot of reputable outlets & some don’t like it. I love it but understand why people wouldn’t like it as it’s crazy complex and majority of cinema audience just want to watch easy going films like Marvel.

The box office has started well internationally as reported, but it’s always going to be an up and down due to Covid-19, almost impossible to predict. Whatever happens with the box office it’s been hugely affected by the pandemic, not much anyone can take from it.
this is a movie with boats and explosions, it's not last year at marienbad. let's cool it with the faux-superiority.


-Vader
It’s still a very complex film, those I’ve read on social media who didnt like it, didn’t because they didn’t understand it, same with many media reviews, it’s appears to be the main gripe. No one says that of a Marvel or films like that.

I’ve seen it a few times and don’t fully understand it but admire it.

No superiority complex here thanks. Just happy.

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Not all doom and gloom though, Tenet can still make a decent amount of cash in the long run. No one knows anything at the moment. Some quick math show this will have to do 450-500 worldwide to be in the black. Might even be a litte less since WB is demaning lager percentages from cinemas. If it crosses the 500 million mark it will make money theatrically, and that would be a massive win for Nolan and WB. Then they can start collecting cash through TV/home media. Remember not all films will be profitable when cinemas open 100% either due to stacked competition.

Some other good news: Both Inception and Interstellar made a lot of money during their re-runs.

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I think the problem isn't that the film is difficult or complex, rather it's simply a bit confusing. Especially when you can't understand important exposition due to audio issues. That Nolan seems to be more interested in his concepts instead of the story or characters doesn't help either.

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Robin wrote:
September 4th, 2020, 8:02 am
Not all doom and gloom though, Tenet can still make a decent amount of cash in the long run. No one knows anything at the moment. Some quick math show this will have to do 450-500 worldwide to be in the black. Might even be a litte less since WB is demaning lager percentages from cinemas. If it crosses the 500 million mark it will make money theatrically, and that would be a massive win for Nolan and WB. Then they can start collecting cash through TV/home media. Remember not all films will be profitable when cinemas open 100% either due to stacked competition.

Some other good news: Both Inception and Interstellar made a lot of money during their re-runs.
If it passes 500m, during a pandemic that would be an amazing feat. It will make profit sooner or later, especially with home video as you mention, but at the end of day, it’s a movie, nice to discuss and predict but some need to chill out. Surely the pandemic proves that stuff like a films box office and critics scores truly don’t matter and not worth getting crazy over.

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