Tenet - Box Office Discussion/Speculation

An original action espionage film releasing in IMAX on July 17, 2020.
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Vader182 wrote:
May 16th, 2020, 5:51 pm
I'm sure Nolan will return to smaller films later in life as the opportunities for making these mega-budgeted movies, mostly with a blank check, become fewer.

He's said so many times.


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CakeLessEgg wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 2:57 pm
Vader182 wrote:
May 16th, 2020, 5:51 pm
I'm sure Nolan will return to smaller films later in life as the opportunities for making these mega-budgeted movies, mostly with a blank check, become fewer.

He's said so many times.


-Vader
Once in the game, one will only try to level up every time!
Yeah, I mean look at Robert Pattinson.

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Oku wrote:
May 21st, 2020, 4:41 am
Yeah I would have waited one more week before moving ahead with the trailer, since as you said, NY is still up in the air.

But I guess that they're feeling good enough about it and they decided that they can't push it off any longer.
On the contrary, I think the trailer is released at a good time. There's plenty of time to release interviews of the main cast, stunt crews, directors and producers to make fans like me think about the plot of the movie.

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I wonder how we'll judge Tenet's box office within the scope of Covid-19. What will qualify Tenet as a "big success" or a flop? What are WB's internal projections?

If WB wanted 800m-1b before Covid-19, what will they settle on now to call it a success? 600m? Less?

How liable will Tenet be given so much uncertainty out there for its own success or failure?


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It's gonna depend a lot on the film's reception. If the film is huge with critics and online buzz and earns little, people will blame COVID. If it gets a lukewarm reception, they might say it was a slump and blame the quality and marketing.

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I don't think it will be that simple.

Interstellar had lukewarm reviews and nearly cleared 700 million worldwide with crazy high user ratings.


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This would've grossed 1 billion without Ms Corona. Whatever the reception would have been like.

Now if the movie gets lukewarm or poor reviews it's over. But if the film is loved there is nothing to worry about even if the gross is low, and with the "Nolan saving cinema" hype I will get delusional with the Oscars.

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Vader182 wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 3:24 pm
I wonder how we'll judge Tenet's box office within the scope of Covid-19. What will qualify Tenet as a "big success" or a flop? What are WB's internal projections?

If WB wanted 800m-1b before Covid-19, what will they settle on now to call it a success? 600m? Less?

How liable will Tenet be given so much uncertainty out there for its own success or failure?


-Vader
No idea. But I suspect Nolan may have negotiated a pay cut in order to convince WB to go ahead with the original release date. No way this movie makes more than money in partial lockdown than in a post-lockdown world.

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Vader182 wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 3:42 pm
I don't think it will be that simple.

Interstellar had lukewarm reviews and nearly cleared 700 million worldwide with crazy high user ratings.


-Vader
I said IF it underperforms. 700 million for an original movie is not underperforming. But if it makes 300 then people will say "well it was released in a difficult time but it didn't help the movie wasn't all that good. Just look at Mulan, it did much better"

I think WB will be happy with 500 million considering the circumstances. 400 would be just ok. Anything below 400 though, people will start pointing fingers at either COVID or the film's quality (especially if Mulan does much better).

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LelekPL wrote:
May 23rd, 2020, 2:24 am
Vader182 wrote:
May 22nd, 2020, 3:42 pm
I don't think it will be that simple.

Interstellar had lukewarm reviews and nearly cleared 700 million worldwide with crazy high user ratings.


-Vader
I said IF it underperforms. 700 million for an original movie is not underperforming. But if it makes 300 then people will say "well it was released in a difficult time but it didn't help the movie wasn't all that good. Just look at Mulan, it did much better"

I think WB will be happy with 500 million considering the circumstances. 400 would be just ok. Anything below 400 though, people will start pointing fingers at either COVID or the film's quality (especially if Mulan does much better).
If Mulan does better than Tenet then I don't know what I'm going to do...

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