Tenet - Box Office Discussion/Speculation

An original action espionage film releasing in IMAX on July 17, 2020.
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Someone should've written an article on April 1 about Tenet being released early on Netflix.

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I'm just itching to get a new trailer...probably won't happen anytime soon.

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Ruth wrote:
April 4th, 2020, 9:20 am
how many more pages do we need of people arguing back and forth about this going to vod. it’s not, it was a joke, please stop it
Imagine how tired are we.

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I think that as long as the other movies are getting new release dates in winter or next year, there is absolutely no chance for Tenet to be released on VoD.

No way someone like Nolan, who is cinema purist would allow that to happen when something like Bond, Top Gun, Black Widow or F9 are getting released at later date.

Btw, in Slovenia, we have no Imax theater and I would again have to travel to Zagreb, Croatia, where the nearest Imax is (as was the case with Dunkirk), the most crucial part of Nolan movie experience for me (along with the mind-bending story, which we will surely get) is actually not the size of the screen but the sound. Nolan movies are especially loud, even more than other movies (I heard some critics even complained about this, I imagine it can be a problem if you have no subtitles that are common in most of central Europe).

We are currently in the fourth week of lockdown and is getting a bit tedious since we still haven't reached the peak of pandemics. However, if there will indeed be the second wave (and if the virus mutates, which I sincerely hope it doesn't happen) in autumn/winter and we get another wave at the same time next year, before we get the medicine, things could change. If other movies won't get the chance to be released, if the cinemas will still be closed and movies like Bond or Top Gun end up on VoD, I could see the same happening with Tenet. However if by that time, we still won't be through with pandemics, Tenet not getting cinema release, will be the least of our concerns.

Another thing worth keeping in mind though; because of the current situation most movie productions have stalled and some movies that should be released later this year or next year, won't be finished in time. Therefore release dates shouldn't be to stacked. When cinemas eventually open later this year or next year, there will have to be movies, that they will be able to roll.

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If situation gets better soon, I think there won't be a reason to wait until '21 to release the movie, as marketing already started with trailer#1. There won't be such a thing as "cinema/blockbuster season". I can imagine that the reason behind the waiting to announce a new date is that Warner is waiting other productions to be moved, so they can find a spot in the late summer/autumn.

We will have at least a year to fully recover, there's no way studios won't release blockbusters till the summer of '21.

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Not sure where else to put this but important quote from the guy who owns Cineworld and Regal
DEADLINE: It’s conceivable that some of the overseas cinemas will open before domestic. Let’s say that in France or Germany or Poland they can open in May. At that point, the studios are not likely to be giving over big movies because they would presumably want to wait for domestic. Do you have any idea how you would work it if some of your other markets opened before North America?

GREIDINGER: I don’t see a possibility except in markets that have really, really strong local product. I can only think of France [where Cineworld is not active], maybe it has enough product. But I don’t see a situation where we can open cinemas without the big studio product.

This is one of the things that will probably make us internationally have to wait for the U.S. market to come back, because opening the cinemas means for us to pay full expenses and without the big movies, this is really impossible.

It would not be realistic to open with older movies, with a cheaper price. This is a great idea for 10 or 14 days or some kind of a run-up before the blockbusters are released, but we will need the U.S. to be back in action in order to have the international markets back in action as well.
https://deadline.com/2020/04/mooky-grei ... 202899758/

Makes me believe more and more that Mulan and this both being in July (especially Disney moving the former, maybe to soften blow of Artemis on D+?) are purposeful concessions to cinema owners even if like capacity is still capped due to govt regulations and stuff.

Hell, with Nolan involved, and pushing the big screen #MaximumEffect already being part of Tenet's marketing, I can imagine WB working with the chains and making that film the backbone of a campaign to bring audiences back to chains in the first weeks. The guy speculates about something like that in the interview as well.

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That's an interesting hook tbh

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i’ve been thinking that, too.

people need to stop being so obsessed with the box office now. the times have already changed, and everything is way too unpredictable. a lot of movies won’t earn their biggest numbers they could have if the pandemic hadn’t happened. i could actually picture nolan still wanting tenet to open in july, even with lower attendance numbers, to make a statement. at this point you’re risking financial losses whether you open in october, december, or next year. but if things get at least somewhat better by july, being the first or one of the first big studio movies to open after one of the most devastating events our generation has ever dealt with, that’s very risky. but also very ballsy and likely historic for film. and unless promo is done in some embarrassingly tone deaf way, could absolutely make people go and see it

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Ruth wrote:
April 6th, 2020, 6:34 pm
i’ve been thinking that, too.

people need to stop being so obsessed with the box office now. the times have already changed, and everything is way too unpredictable. a lot of movies won’t earn their biggest numbers they could have if the pandemic hadn’t happened. i could actually picture nolan still wanting tenet to open in july, even with lower attendance numbers, to make a statement. at this point you’re risking financial losses whether you open in october, december, or next year. but if things get at least somewhat better by july, being the first or one of the first big studio movies to open after one of the most devastating events our generation has ever dealt with, that’s very risky. but also very ballsy and likely historic for film. and unless promo is done in some embarrassingly tone deaf way, could absolutely make people go and see it
Given there might not be many releases for the rest of the year (due to many movies getting rescheduled to next year) esp. not many IMAX movies, a good solution for trying to maximize the box office of Tenet could be to extend how long it plays in theatres. keep it playing through the whole summer into early 2021 if necessary. People will gradually feel comfortable with going to theatres again during that time.

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