But just as with Dunkirk, it'll be fascinating to follow, because of its paradoxical elements: on the surface, Tenet seemingly hits every checkbox possible for it to be a hit (as much as a film by Mr. Nolan can, anyway, without stepping into quipping, CGI overload, etc. territory)...that is, except the elephant in the room.
That's not even taking into account China's summer foreign film blackout policy, which means that Tenet will probably get a one-week September release that will further cripple it.
So expect it to struggle in China, do well domestically (U.S.) but as for everywhere else?
It's impossible at this stage to tell whether the black lead will be a dampener/turn-off for foreign (non-China) audiences, or actually turn out to be a trump-card/differentiator among the dozens of spy movies that we will be getting in the summer of 2020.
As a native Chinese moviegoer, I can assure you that TENET won't struggle in China. It's an action movie with time manipulation. General Chinese audience like and are drawn to this kind of "flashy" movie. Plus Nolan has long become a brand in China and it's foreseeable that TENET will ignite heated discussion on China's social media when it's released in China (just like Inception and Interstellar), which will attract more people go to see it. China has a huge market, and once a movie becomes a topic of daily conversation, it's box office potential will be enormous.
Yes the September release doesn't look good but it won't be one week. And the long wait will incite audience's impulse to see it.
As for the Black-lead thing... For you infomation, Chinese are not racists and that Star Wars poster are just some marketing bias, which can't represent genreal audience's attitude. Plus SW franchise always flop in China for its lesser fanbase.
All in all, TENET won't struggle in China. I expect it to be a Box Office hit!
Dunkirk grossed 50 million on its opening weekend (in North America). Thats pretty impressive for a original movie about the second world war from the british perspective. With unknown actors! https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2 ... rl_table_1
Tenet has more mainstream appeal. And there is no major competitor. Ghostbusters Afterlife will be released the weekend prior. It's more of a family film. And lets be honest. The Ghostbusters brand is not that strong enough to pull two strong weekends in a row. And we should not forget that Tenet will be a long IMAX film. Surcharges incoming! So I'm predicting an opening weekend of 60-70 million. To my knowledge Avatar still holds the record for the best domestic opening (77 million) of an original movie.
Let's assume Tenet is good and word of mouth is starting successfully. The week after Jungle Cruise gets released. It is a family film. Attracts other audiences and to date, it has weak trailer viewings (12 million if we count the channels of Disney & The Rock together). Also The Rock is more successful in China than in the US. So I'm predicting a second strong weekend with 35-40 million. (Dunkirk made 26 million, defended the first place against new release Emoji Movie). https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2 ... =bo_we_nav
In the third weekend Morbius gets released. It is a Marvel movie from Sony with Jared Leto in the lead. But it is about a vampire. Maybe it will be more dark than the average marvel movie. So it's quite hard to estimate if it will be a financial success or a fail. But as of today, I predict that it will beat Tenet. But good news is, after Morbius there is no really major competitor. The whole august. So my prediction. Tenet will gross domestic aprox. 180-220 million.
The important international markets will be China, South Korea, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain, Russia, Australia and Japan (all countries where Interstellar grossed at least 10 million). International I predict 500-550 million. So worldwide box office gross 680-770 million.
But I guess Warner Bros is hoping at least for a billion. Given the budget of Tenet is 225 million.
Can't seem to find any director whose original film made 1B. Of course there is James. But both his originals made over 2B each and close to 5B combined.
Tenet's 1B would be impressive though, because it is in produced a short time period.
Also I don't think upcoming three Avatar movies are going to make 2B each. And they took over a decade and half in total.
Dunkirk grossed 50 million on its opening weekend (in North America). Thats pretty impressive for a original movie about the second world war from the british perspective. With unknown actors! https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2 ... rl_table_1
Tenet has more mainstream appeal. And there is no major competitor. Ghostbusters Afterlife will be released the weekend prior. It's more of a family film. And lets be honest. The Ghostbusters brand is not that strong enough to pull two strong weekends in a row. And we should not forget that Tenet will be a long IMAX film. Surcharges incoming! So I'm predicting an opening weekend of 60-70 million. To my knowledge Avatar still holds the record for the best domestic opening (77 million) of an original movie.
Let's assume Tenet is good and word of mouth is starting successfully. The week after Jungle Cruise gets released. It is a family film. Attracts other audiences and to date, it has weak trailer viewings (12 million if we count the channels of Disney & The Rock together). Also The Rock is more successful in China than in the US. So I'm predicting a second strong weekend with 35-40 million. (Dunkirk made 26 million, defended the first place against new release Emoji Movie). https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2 ... =bo_we_nav
In the third weekend Morbius gets released. It is a Marvel movie from Sony with Jared Leto in the lead. But it is about a vampire. Maybe it will be more dark than the average marvel movie. So it's quite hard to estimate if it will be a financial success or a fail. But as of today, I predict that it will beat Tenet. But good news is, after Morbius there is no really major competitor. The whole august. So my prediction. Tenet will gross domestic aprox. 180-220 million.
The important international markets will be China, South Korea, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain, Russia, Australia and Japan (all countries where Interstellar grossed at least 10 million). International I predict 500-550 million. So worldwide box office gross 680-770 million.
But I guess Warner Bros is hoping at least for a billion. Given the budget of Tenet is 225 million.
I agree that. But Inception's first weekend was 62 million and it made 290 million. So if this movie will be as good as Inception, with a nearly 70 million more budget, which will also increase its marketing budget, i think it will made more than 60-70 at its opening.
Also this movie shot in 7 countries. I think this will increase its box office in these countries. So i guess Tenet will make more than 800 million but less than 1B.
But just as with Dunkirk, it'll be fascinating to follow, because of its paradoxical elements: on the surface, Tenet seemingly hits every checkbox possible for it to be a hit (as much as a film by Mr. Nolan can, anyway, without stepping into quipping, CGI overload, etc. territory)...that is, except the elephant in the room.
That's not even taking into account China's summer foreign film blackout policy, which means that Tenet will probably get a one-week September release that will further cripple it.
So expect it to struggle in China, do well domestically (U.S.) but as for everywhere else?
It's impossible at this stage to tell whether the black lead will be a dampener/turn-off for foreign (non-China) audiences, or actually turn out to be a trump-card/differentiator among the dozens of spy movies that we will be getting in the summer of 2020.
As a native Chinese moviegoer, I can assure you that TENET won't struggle in China. It's an action movie with time manipulation. General Chinese audience like and are drawn to this kind of "flashy" movie. Plus Nolan has long become a brand in China and it's foreseeable that TENET will ignite heated discussion on China's social media when it's released in China (just like Inception and Interstellar), which will attract more people go to see it. China has a huge market, and once a movie becomes a topic of daily conversation, it's box office potential will be enormous.
Yes the September release doesn't look good but it won't be one week. And the long wait will incite audience's impulse to see it.
As for the Black-lead thing... For you infomation, Chinese are not racists and that Star Wars poster are just some marketing bias, which can't represent genreal audience's attitude. Plus SW franchise always flop in China for its lesser fanbase.
All in all, TENET won't struggle in China. I expect it to be a Box Office hit!
Maybe thats offtopic, but I'm really interested:
Why do chinese audiences love all these simple blockbusters? Even movies like "Bumblebee" made 170 million dollar there.
Because most of the Chinese general audience don’t have taste, they going to a movie just for excitement and entertainment. They love action blockbuster no-brainer like Fast & Furious franchise. Cinephiles are only a relatively small amount of people here.
I know I'm a few pages late, but Grace Randolph is consistently ignorant and wrong about nearly everything she discusses.
Interstellar was pretty successful for an original project with a medium budget, and Dunkirk was incredibly successful for a war film released among major blockbusters.
Warner Bros. wouldn't give Nolan a massive budget for Tenet if they were thinking he needed to prove himself or thought his recent films had been any kind of disappointment.
Grace has a little bias against Nolan because she was upset that he left DC and DC has been losing to Marvel ever since. lol. Which is why she can't really look fairly at Interstellar and Dunkirk.
I'm not assuming this, she very clearly gave that up in one of her videos.
Yeah..but really don't know why forum members keep telling those hoping for 1B box office for Tenet that they are overexpecting.
Since the past few years everybody's been saying "let's be realistic, alright?".
1B is just slightly short of 4x Tenet's budget. Dunkirk made nearly 5x its budget. Are you saying Nolan can't hit 1B with an original? Because nobody is gonna raise eyebrows for inception numbers anymore.
