Tenet - Box Office Autopsy

An original action espionage film releasing in IMAX on August 12, 2020
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How is WB still a thing after all these back to back flops?

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Master Virgo wrote:
January 10th, 2021, 5:11 pm
How is WB still a thing after all these back to back flops?
They are owned by AT&T which is both a blessing and a curse :lol:

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Master Virgo wrote:
January 10th, 2021, 5:11 pm
How is WB still a thing after all these back to back flops?
I know that they have investors for films during production, but the one thing we can't forget is that outside of marketing these films were already paid for before COVID. So they're just trying to get back anything they can at this point.

In other words, if they were still a thing at the start of COVID, then I guess it only makes sense they're still a thing now.

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Tenet is at $363.1 million, it needed around $400 (450 at most) to break even during its theatrical run (WB spent considerably less on marketing). With re-releases in coming years it still might do more.

Tenet also performs on all home media platforms, so it is reasonable to think the film will end up being a decent money maker for WB at the end of the day

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Tenet will turn a profit at some point.

It probably would've earned 550m-600m worldwide in a conventional release situation and WB knows that.


-Vader

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It would've made a heck of a lot more than $500-600m under normal circumstances

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Willem wrote:
January 13th, 2021, 7:46 am
It would've made a heck of a lot more than $500-600m under normal circumstances
Well its hard to say and depends on the country. In most countries Tenet grossed slightly less than Interstellar (UK, Spain, Italy, Russia, Mexico etc.). In certain countries it grossed even nearly the same as Interstellar or even more (Japan, Germany, France). And all these countries had covid restrictions for movie theaters.

The only real major disappointments were:
USA (actual gross $57M, under normal circumstances probably $150M)
South Korea (actual gross $16M, under normal circumstances probably $50M)
China (actual gross $66M, but chinese moviegoers seemed to prefer a domestic war film. It grossed $366M. So Covid is not really a excuse. On the other hand, Mulan & WW84 failed hard in China and grossed way way less than Tenet. Maybe chinese audiences are not in the mood for Hollywood right now?).

And we shouldn't forget that Tenet had nearly no pathos in it (mainstream audiences love pathos, that was always a big reason why Nolans former movies got so popular, imagine Interstellar without the sentimental stuff) and Nolan broke up with a certain storytelling point (no character development for the protagonist, no emotional involvement). In my opinion Tenet is Nolans best film since The Prestige. But I can see why it has not that much mainstream appeal.

So Tenet grossing more than $600M under normal circumstances seems like a very bold prediction as for now.

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X-MementoMori-X wrote:
January 13th, 2021, 11:08 am
Willem wrote:
January 13th, 2021, 7:46 am
It would've made a heck of a lot more than $500-600m under normal circumstances
Well its hard to say and depends on the country. In most countries Tenet grossed slightly less than Interstellar (UK, Spain, Italy, Russia, Mexico etc.). In certain countries it grossed even nearly the same as Interstellar or even more (Japan, Germany, France). And all these countries had covid restrictions for movie theaters.

The only real major disappointments were:
USA (actual gross $57M, under normal circumstances probably $150M)
South Korea (actual gross $16M, under normal circumstances probably $50M)
China (actual gross $66M, but chinese moviegoers seemed to prefer a domestic war film. It grossed $366M. So Covid is not really a excuse. On the other hand, Mulan & WW84 failed hard in China and grossed way way less than Tenet. Maybe chinese audiences are not in the mood for Hollywood right now?).

And we shouldn't forget that Tenet had nearly no pathos in it (mainstream audiences love pathos, that was always a big reason why Nolans former movies got so popular, imagine Interstellar without the sentimental stuff) and Nolan broke up with a certain storytelling point (no character development for the protagonist, no emotional involvement). In my opinion Tenet is Nolans best film since The Prestige. But I can see why it has not that much mainstream appeal.

So Tenet grossing more than $600M under normal circumstances seems like a very bold prediction as for now.
Good info

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Remember Dunkirk/Interstellar made roughly 190 million domestic due to legging out from a 50 million-ish launch. The word of mouth on Tenet was of a magnitude worse. Let's assume it opens in the same range or a little higher. Well, considering the Tenet Cinemascore (B) and audience ratings in general, Tenet wouldn't have equaled those legs. The question then becomes how much less would Tenet earn. X-MementoMori-X is probably correct that it's around 150m.

Assuming it legged out similarly to Ready Player One, another sci-fi actioner by a big name director with tempered audience ratings, opened lower but had a much higher cinemascore, that brings it to that 150m range with a 50m opening.

It's safe to assume Tenet would have performed better overseas (where it already did fairly well) without Covid, and it had a fairly robust opening. My guess is Tenet likely did somewhere around 75% of its box office internationally.

150m domestic + 400m internationally = 550m. Let's add in a 50m cushion if it overperformed (generous, I think), and you get a range of 550m-600m.

The idea Tenet would've done Inception or even Interstellar numbers is a bit of a fantasy. It would always have underperformed, it just would've also made a sizable profit had Covid not happened.


-Vader

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