NotoriousWolf wrote:This film has already exceeded it's budget. That's what matters.

Exactly

19.6 for Dark Tower, 17.6 for Dunkirk.

I'm going for the bold 203 million US - 513 million worldwide. We shouldn't be afraid to dream higher.

I think this week we can see Dunkirk gain almost 2 million to Rogue Nation, splitting the opening weekend difference in half. Rogue Nation probably had some holidays in one of the weekends but I believe things end up normalizing in the following weeks. Dunkirk still has a good 50-60 million to gain bigger differences between the two. This longer run in the US would probably make the split to go a bit higher in comparison to the overseas markets it's already playing (let's say 45%)...that's a 451WW without Japan/Italy/China. Interstellar made almost 145M in those markets. Split that number in half and it's 70 million to add to those 451. Hacksaw Ridge made 62 million in China. Fury made 20. Even an extremely modest 40 million in China might be enough for the 500M.

My biggest doubt is really how much more it will make in non-us territories (without those big 3 opening, japan/china/italy). I think my split is fairly conservative cause this week/weekend it made more than in usa. I'm estimating it ends up making less in the next two months.

Master Virgo wrote:It's quite odd that from the look of things, when it's all said and done, this film will have a better domestic sum than Pirates, Transformers and Cars. Terrible terrible year for business no doubt.

Hopefully this film's success won't result into a sudden surge of lame blockbuster war films. Nolan is creating waves in mainstream cinema for some time, but Hollywood usually fucks them up pretty quickly.£

Oh, is it a lock to pass Pirates of the Caribbean and become #5 highest grossing of the summer?

That would be astounding, and something that nobody saw coming:

http://www.slashfilm.com/2017-summer-mo ... edictions/
http://thepopbreak.com/2017/04/26/the-t ... ions-2017/
https://www.vox.com/summer-movies/2017/ ... redictions

motui302 wrote:

Master Virgo wrote:It's quite odd that from the look of things, when it's all said and done, this film will have a better domestic sum than Pirates, Transformers and Cars. Terrible terrible year for business no doubt.

Hopefully this film's success won't result into a sudden surge of lame blockbuster war films. Nolan is creating waves in mainstream cinema for some time, but Hollywood usually fucks them up pretty quickly.£

Hello everyone, I just signed up but have been a Nolanite since 2008 and followed this forum everyday in the last 2 months.
Glad to be a part of this community.

To Mr. Master Virgo, I've been enjoying your box office analysis immensely. I'm aware in a previous post, you predicted Dunkirk to wrap up with 430 - 470 mil worldwide, which I agree is a reasonable goal.
Nevertheless, do you think it has any chance to clear 500 mil? If so, how big such a chance?
It's been doing much stronger than expected in the UK and holding solidly in Australia, New Zealand, Netherlands and not so bad in France. I'm hoping it will be able to cross this milestone when it's all said and done.
And how much does China have to chip in to make it possible?

Actuals are in from the domestic weekend. WB overshot again with yesterday's estimate, but still a strong weekend at $17.135 million...down only 35.6% from last weekend.

motui302 wrote:To Mr. Master Virgo, I've been enjoying your box office analysis immensely. I'm aware in a previous post, you predicted Dunkirk to wrap up with 430 - 470 mil worldwide, which I agree is a reasonable goal.
Nevertheless, do you think it has any chance to clear 500 mil? If so, how big such a chance?
It's been doing much stronger than expected in the UK and holding solidly in Australia, New Zealand, Netherlands and not so bad in France. I'm hoping it will be able to cross this milestone when it's all said and done.
And how much does China have to chip in to make it possible?

Oh thanks. I merely interpret the data, which anyone can do really.

I'm guessing the film will make somewhere between 390-420 mil worldwide without China's help. Now there, it gets very hard to predict. There aren't many other movies to compare it to. If it does Hacksaw Ridge level of business (62 mil) that will be reasonably satisfying, making around Fury's numbers on the other hand (19 mil) would be a bit underwhelming.

Either way 500 mil seems very unlikely. But you never know, China might end up being huge. I doubt that any of us could ever predict that Interstellar would make as much as Iron Man 3 in China.£

I'm thinking another 8-10 mil for the week then 11-13 mil for the weekend, hopefully hanging on to 2nd place..gonna be a log jam with the newbies..I'd say by next sunday it should hit 155 dom...350-360 ww

Maybe it it could have been #1 again, but that's out of the question now because of Annabelle: Creation.

WB, why you friendly fire yourself like that!

Annabelle: Creation should have kept its original release date of May.

Those WB estimates revisions are always annoying It's basically the same exact number of Rogue Nation

It seem this still has quite a bit left on the tank in the united kingdom. It will be a nice steady income for the coming weeks in non-us territories.

http://m.screendaily.com/5120629.article

3rd week in a row it's number 1 in the UK

And it's surpassed Inception's UK box office already.