Lionheart wrote:It would be cool if this was the Titanic of this summer.
I think Nolan puts people in the seats like very few do. Cruise, Di Caprio and I don't remember anyone else. I'm not sure Spielberg still has that ability. Cameron makes a movie per decade so I exclude him from this conversation. All this to say I think he probably guarantees 400-500 million WW. Everything else depends of the genre and how good it is. I feel Dunkirk is probably in the lower limit in terms of potential but considering how good it seems to be, I'm definitely unsure where it might land worldwide. But WB probably knows those 400M are locked.
I wouldn't say $400 million is a lock.
For all the acclaim that Mad Max: Fury Road received, it only made $378 million.
Granted, that was R-rated while Dunkirk is PG-13, but at the same time, a post-apocalyptic action movie with crazy visuals is a way easier sell to a general audience than a harrowing WWII movie that's not about America.
Lionheart wrote:It would be cool if this was the Titanic of this summer.
I think Nolan puts people in the seats like very few do. Cruise, Di Caprio and I don't remember anyone else. I'm not sure Spielberg still has that ability. Cameron makes a movie per decade so I exclude him from this conversation. All this to say I think he probably guarantees 400-500 million WW. Everything else depends of the genre and how good it is. I feel Dunkirk is probably in the lower limit in terms of potential but considering how good it seems to be, I'm definitely unsure where it might land worldwide. But WB probably knows those 400M are locked.
I wouldn't say $400 million is a lock.
For all the acclaim that Mad Max: Fury Road received, it only made $378 million.
Granted, that was R-rated while Dunkirk is PG-13, but at the same time, a post-apocalyptic action movie with crazy visuals is a way easier sell to a general audience than a harrowing WWII movie that's not about America.
No, I don't think so. I think a crazy, "zany" post-apocalyptic film where there are obese women being siphoned for milk is a lot more off putting to the public than a war film. And Dunkirk seems like an action thrill ride just like Fury Road.
okungnyo wrote:[
I wouldn't say $400 million is a lock.
For all the acclaim that Mad Max: Fury Road received, it only made $378 million.
Granted, that was R-rated while Dunkirk is PG-13, but at the same time, a post-apocalyptic action movie with crazy visuals is a way easier sell to a general audience than a harrowing WWII movie that's not about America.
How much more would have Fury Road made with Nolan's name attached? Interstellar almost made 700 million dollars. That to me is all kinds of crazy. The film was not very well received, it has a very slow buildup, it's extremely out there in terms visual imagery and narrative setting, a minor success in USA yet a lot of people worldwide went to see it. He's the only director I hear friends who aren't really into cinema saying "i want to see the new Nolan movie".
Lionheart wrote:It would be cool if this was the Titanic of this summer.
I think Nolan puts people in the seats like very few do. Cruise, Di Caprio and I don't remember anyone else. I'm not sure Spielberg still has that ability. Cameron makes a movie per decade so I exclude him from this conversation. All this to say I think he probably guarantees 400-500 million WW. Everything else depends of the genre and how good it is. I feel Dunkirk is probably in the lower limit in terms of potential but considering how good it seems to be, I'm definitely unsure where it might land worldwide. But WB probably knows those 400M are locked.
I wouldn't say $400 million is a lock.
For all the acclaim that Mad Max: Fury Road received, it only made $378 million.
Granted, that was R-rated while Dunkirk is PG-13, but at the same time, a post-apocalyptic action movie with crazy visuals is a way easier sell to a general audience than a harrowing WWII movie that's not about America.
No, I don't think so. I think a crazy, "zany" post-apocalyptic film where there are obese women being siphoned for milk is a lot more off putting to the public than a war film. And Dunkirk seems like an action thrill ride just like Fury Road.
You're fixating on one scene, while I'm talking about the general tone and marketing.
As I said, a post-apocalyptic action movie with crazy visuals is a much easier sell to the general audience than a harrowing WWII movie that's not about America.
Lionheart wrote:
okungnyo wrote:[
I wouldn't say $400 million is a lock.
For all the acclaim that Mad Max: Fury Road received, it only made $378 million.
Granted, that was R-rated while Dunkirk is PG-13, but at the same time, a post-apocalyptic action movie with crazy visuals is a way easier sell to a general audience than a harrowing WWII movie that's not about America.
How much more would have Fury Road made with Nolan's name attached? Interstellar almost made 700 million dollars. That to me is all kinds of crazy. The film was not very well received, it has a very slow buildup, it's extremely out there in terms visual imagery and narrative setting, a minor success in USA yet a lot of people worldwide went to see it. He's the only director I hear friends who aren't really into cinema saying "i want to see the new Nolan movie".
Maybe not with critics, Interstellar was well-received among the general audience, which is why it had good word-of-mouth and good legs.
Today the final predictions from BoxOffice Pro
I think in a few a hours Weekend Predictions will be available
I still believe the movie will open at least at $60 M
BOX OFFICE
Acclaimed by most — but not all — French critics, Christopher Nolan’s “Dunkirk” swept away the competition at its first early afternoon screenings in Paris, as it made its commercial bow in one of its first major territories abroad. Tickets sold — 3,145 at 35 locations in the French capital — were nearly three times those for No. 2 release, Sony Pictures Releasing’s “Baby Driver,” according to website cbo-boxoffice.com.
Results were under half those of “Despicable Me 3,” the best first-session Paris bow of this year with 7,359 admissions. But “Dunkirk,” released by Warner Bros., came in seventh-best for the year, despite many Parisians having taken off on holiday. First-session results are a fairly good bellwether for France. Five of the top six midday Paris bows ended up, or are tracking to end up, in the top 10 releases in France for 2017.
It's certainly going to be a VERY interesting opening weekend to track. Let's see if it'll break out of the 40-45 I've been guessing for months.
Worth pointing out anecdotally that local IMAX theaters are doing okay on ticket presales, but not a single ticket has been sold at the two closest dolby theaters to my apartment. And I live in Chicagoland.
