Interstellar Oscar Chances

Christopher Nolan's 2014 grand scale science-fiction story about time and space, and the things that transcend them.
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HorrorBiz wrote:
nightfury93 wrote:Wait a second, I thought word around the grapevine was that Selma did not go over well during a screening a few weeks ago. Was that just speculation?
Well, early word was that Interstellar was Nolan's best film, a masterpiece and was a front runner to win major Oscars. Then the critics saw it... and expectations weren't met. You can't always go by early buzz on these things.
The difference is it appears that last nights screening actually was for critics (in addition to some Oscar pundits) because Selma and American Sniper both have reviews posted today on RT and MC. Selma's first 3 MC are all 100's so if Warner Bros does in fact not have a hand in lobbying for Interstellar in the Oscar race then this could be very bad news. However, early reviews for American Sniper on MC have been lukewarm so if Warner's film fails to make a splash I wonder if they would back their co-project...

I just watched Interstellar again and while it may not be my favorite I do think it's worthy of nominations across the board so I hope it does not get overlooked just cause of the less than 'stellar' reception :judge:

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I don't know if anyone here has checked out Kristopher Tapley's predictions over at In Contention as of late, but Interstellar took a huge drop in several categories. He now only has it predicted for Best Original Score, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing and Best Visual Effects.

Also, Selma looks to be getting the same kind of raves that 12 Years a Slave got last year. There are only 5 reviews counted on Rotten Tomatoes so far but the average is a 10/10 (and a Metacritic score of 100). If reviews continue to be that positive, and since this has been a pretty weak year, I won't be surprised if it takes home the gold. I'm looking forward to seeing it.

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HorrorBiz wrote:I don't know if anyone here has checked out Kristopher Tapley's predictions over at In Contention as of late, but Interstellar took a huge drop in several categories. He now only has it predicted for Best Original Score, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing and Best Visual Effects.

Also, Selma looks to be getting the same kind of raves that 12 Years a Slave got last year. There are only 5 reviews counted on Rotten Tomatoes so far but the average is a 10/10 (and a Metacritic score of 100). If reviews continue to be that positive, and since this has been a pretty weak year, I won't be surprised if it takes home the gold. I'm looking forward to seeing it.
^^ link:
http://www.hitfix.com/contenders/best-picture

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Monicabbm wrote:
HorrorBiz wrote:I don't know if anyone here has checked out Kristopher Tapley's predictions over at In Contention as of late, but Interstellar took a huge drop in several categories. He now only has it predicted for Best Original Score, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing and Best Visual Effects.

Also, Selma looks to be getting the same kind of raves that 12 Years a Slave got last year. There are only 5 reviews counted on Rotten Tomatoes so far but the average is a 10/10 (and a Metacritic score of 100). If reviews continue to be that positive, and since this has been a pretty weak year, I won't be surprised if it takes home the gold. I'm looking forward to seeing it.
^^ link:
http://www.hitfix.com/contenders/best-picture
He is delusional if he thinks the movie will miss Cinematography and Editing.
I also think that the 5% of Oscar voters who are going to bawl their eyes out will certainly make sure the film gets in for Picture.

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MeLVaNoaTe wrote:
Monicabbm wrote:
HorrorBiz wrote:I don't know if anyone here has checked out Kristopher Tapley's predictions over at In Contention as of late, but Interstellar took a huge drop in several categories. He now only has it predicted for Best Original Score, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing and Best Visual Effects.

Also, Selma looks to be getting the same kind of raves that 12 Years a Slave got last year. There are only 5 reviews counted on Rotten Tomatoes so far but the average is a 10/10 (and a Metacritic score of 100). If reviews continue to be that positive, and since this has been a pretty weak year, I won't be surprised if it takes home the gold. I'm looking forward to seeing it.
^^ link:
http://www.hitfix.com/contenders/best-picture
He is delusional if he thinks the movie will miss Cinematography and Editing.
I also think that the 5% of Oscar voters who are going to bawl their eyes out will certainly make sure the film gets in for Picture.
Editing will be tough. It's considered a very above the line category (I would personally say just below Picture and Director) and with Interstellar sinking in the big categories, it's chances are slim. Also editing nominations are heavily tied to how people feel about the narrative of the movie, and the fact that people had problems with Interstellar's story and script makes it very unlikely of getting a nod.

I'm pretty shocked by the Cinematography snub though. I know Deakins is a master and all, but Unbroken hasn't even screened yet. No matter what people say about Interstellar, the consensus is it was filmed exceptionally. I'm wondering if the critical backlash is causing people to drop it regardless in favor of the other Oscar favorites. I would say only Birdman and Selma are sure noms.

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Editing will be tough. It's considered a very above the line category (I would personally say just below Picture and Director) and with Interstellar sinking in the big categories, it's chances are slim. Also editing nominations are heavily tied to how people feel about the narrative of the movie, and the fact that people had problems with Interstellar's story and script makes it very unlikely of getting a nod.

I'm pretty shocked by the Cinematography snub though. I know Deakins is a master and all, but Unbroken hasn't even screened yet. No matter what people say about Interstellar, the consensus is it was filmed exceptionally. I'm wondering if the critical backlash is causing people to drop it regardless in favor of the other Oscar favorites. I would say only Birdman and Selma are sure noms.
I think Editing is more closely tied to the pacing of the film rather than the narrative and the movie felt quite short as opposed to what the runtime might want you to believe.
I am also sure that it won't miss Cinematography, and as you said, the criticism against the movie was not aimed at how it was shot.

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Yeah, historically there's a strong correlation between Best Editing and Best Picture. Of course with an expanded field now many films (half the field) get in that don't make the editing category (Inception was one obviously) but Best Picture front-runners almost always represent in Best Editing and Best Director.

BTW, I asked over at AwardsDaily how often a studio will strongly lobby for multiple of it's pictures to the point where more than one of it's films makes the Best Pic lineup and it happens quite frequently actually. In fact there's even been years with only a field of 5 that 3 of the nominees were all backed by the same studio, so just because Selma looks to be coming on strong doesn't mean Paramount will give up on Interstellar necessarily.

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I'll say this. If Hans doesn't win Best Score for his work on this film, it would be an absolute joke. It's seriously the easiest win this year, in my opinion. The only real competition to me would be Gone Girl's score, but even that is pretty much the same ol' Reznor formula. What Hans did with this movie was completely unique to what he's done in the past, and that breath of fresh air deserves to be rewarded.

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