Interstellar Box Office Predictions

Christopher Nolan's 2014 grand scale science-fiction story about time and space, and the things that transcend them.
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Panapaok wrote:
thegreypilgrim wrote:Even though they are totally different films with totally different goals, Interstellar is far better than the overrated crock that is The Godfather.
Kill yourself.
ASAP

LOL. Nah.

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Really interesting analysis of U.S. box office in Forbes and how the media "manages" the spin, probably contributing to capping domestic box office - but can't touch international:

Interstellar' Soars Past $450 Million

After three weekends and few days, director Christopher Nolan sci-fi extravaganza Interstellar stands at more than $460 million in worldwide box office (counting today’s receipts). The film will easily fly past $500 million by close of business Sunday, as our extended domestic Thanksgiving weekend comes to a close and overseas audiences continue to flock to the picture’s hopeful message about the future of humanity among the stars. After a start that fell short of loftier expectations and became the first Nolan film since 2002′s Insomnia to fail to take first place at the box office on opening weekend, there was speculation about whether the director’s latest film would even be able to top $500 million if it lacked the legs of Nolan’s more recent productions.

That speculation has fallen silent, though, as foreign numbers came rolling in and have even remained ahead of figures for 2010′s Inception. In China, Interstellar is already closing in on $100 million after its second weekend in release there, while it remains a phenomenon in South Korea where its already topped $50 million and continues to do strong business. For comparison, Inception crossed $500 million worldwide on its fifth weekend of release, while Interstellar is preparing to achieve that figure on weekend four.

The domestic opening weekend — in fact, the very first Friday of release in North America — saw instant press headlines quick to label Interstellar a dud, leading to stories about how weak the $49 million first weekend was and why any attempts to argue for a different perspective were just pointless “spin.” Forgetting, apparently, that the November opening amid mixed critical reaction and constant reports of it being cerebral and lacking in action or fun; the lack of a big international star who can “open” a movie on name alone; and the fact it came on the heels of The Dark Knight Rises rather than The Dark Knight all made the $13 million shortfall from the opening numbers for Leonardo DiCaprio action-driven summer blockbuster Inception perhaps a bit more understandable than those knee-jerk negative headlines and predictions seemed willing to admit.

There’s no doubt Interstellar hasn’t resonated with domestic audiences to the extent it’s captured the imagination of foreign viewers. 2014 has seen few films capable of overcoming what seems to be a sort of malaise among filmgoers in the states, and it seems unlikely Nolan’s space epic will even reach the $200 million threshold in the North American market. But the eager rush in the press to spread the word to the public that the public itself doesn’t much care for Interstellar certainly helped create a negative narrative that added to overall underwhelming coverage and surely had some impact on suppressing attendance at home.

I know many will hurry to insist the real culprit is a film that just didn’t impress enough people and failed to give audiences a reason to show up — to which I’ll counter that anyone arguing that strong media sentiment doesn’t impact cinematic performance should keep that assertion in mind the next time they want to insist a film opened big due to a marketing onslaught or overwhelming positive reviews and so on.

The truth is, sometimes the public is so taken with an idea, a star, or a franchise that the press doesn’t have much impact on attendance. Sometimes marketing is so good and so widespread it drowns out negative reviews. Sometimes word of mouth is so good that the opinion of the press doesn’t matter enough to change things. Other times, a barrage of media and reviews can set a tone that takes hold in the collective conscience of the public, and it can build on other factors — like generally lower enthusiasm among domestic audiences, or the glow wearing off on some filmmaker after a recent more mixed cinematic release, and so on — enough to reduce attendance. It happens, we’ve all seen it happen, and anyone who pretends it doesn’t just isn’t being realistic about it.

But let’s be honest enough to also admit that Interstellar has some complicated ideas that are fascinating to some viewers, but might simply not be that interesting to some others. However great I personally think it is, I also understand that people’s taste in film can differ and their willingness to sit through nearly three hours of movie might depend on whether the price is worth paying. IMAX is terrific and definitely worth the price, but with a complicated hard-science film that pretty much demands an IMAX viewing, it can be hard on the wallet to keep paying those premium ticket prices for repeat viewings. Yet, after seeing it in all it’s awe-inspiring IMAX glory, it’s hard to go back for a standard experience on a smaller screen.

It’s also not hard to understand the other reasons why some viewers have hesitated to see it (again, particularly at premium prices and with such a long running time). Word of mouth from the press has remained mixed. There’s been a loud — and exaggerated, not to mention a tad angry for some reason — backlash of arguments that the film’s science isn’t accurate enough. And Christopher Nolan himself has suffered a bizarre and pointedly hostile backlash from a lot of film fans online and in the real world, who seem to resent him over the fact a lot of his fans think he’s so awesome they make admittedly inflated claims about his films being the “best” movies of all time.

So it’s not necessarily surprising that the film failed to grab audiences domestically in a bigger way, in light of that environment surrounding the film’s release. Which is a shame, because if you’ve not seen the film, you’re denying yourself a wonderful experience that the rest of the world has smartly embraced and enjoyed.

Luckily for Interstellar, those foreign audiences are helping the film overcome the softer domestic reaction and putting it on course for a finish at least between $600 million and $700 million worldwide. That won’t be enough to top Inception unless the foreign returns really hold especially strong for weeks to come, and I’ve no doubt there are plenty of entertainment journalists ready to push that particular point as the take-away negative message of Interstellar‘s box office run, but those voices are myopic and wrongheaded. If an original property of this scope and ambition is a worldwide blockbuster to the tune of $600-700 million, that’s excellent even if it admittedly represents the lowest box office of a Christopher Nolan film in the last several years — years of two Batman flicks and Inception, mind you, before which Nolan’s films were still successful but at a more modest level.

While the highest expectations might’ve been for something closer to the $1 billion range, that was always a very long shot. Lacking 3D, an established franchise brand, or a star with the sort of global fanbase of DiCaprio, even IMAX ticketing was unlikely to provide the sort of boost necessary to get Interstellar to those sorts of levels. But these days, everybody seems to think $1 billion is the must-hit number, and expectations have become ridiculous — which feeds the negative narrative trend in the press, since of course few films are going to realistically live up to that sort of constant standard. Which is why just last weekend we were told with a straight face that The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 was basically not popular with audiences, fell flat, disappointed, and so on due to it’s $122 million opening weekend. And so it goes.

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lookin like this bad boy is going to have a good holiday weekend if estimates are near where they say they are it could have another solid 14-16mil for fri-sun, crackin 150 is nice, 200 is next. ;)

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Benzilla wrote:lookin like this bad boy is going to have a good holiday weekend if estimates are near where they say they are it could have another solid 14-16mil for fri-sun, crackin 150 is nice, 200 is next. ;)
It will probably crack 180mil, but 200mil still seems like quite a stretch.

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I find it interesting that this weekend it made roughly the same amount of money (estimated) like the previous weekend. No drop. That's something when considering it was 349 theatres shorter this week.

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So this clearly has legs then. Just depends how strong they are. If they can keep moving through december and gets the scraps in January then this is a huge success.

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Where is Japan numbers?

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Outstanding figures so far :clap:

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Can someone please explain how Interstellar is doing so far with regard to making a profit based on its $165 budget?

For example, what do the following numbers mean:

Domestic total gross = 27.1%
Foreign total gross = 72.9%

I understand it's making more outside of domestic, but how are these percentages derived based on its $165 budget?

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