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Goku Goes Crazy wrote:

Law_of_4 wrote:goku oh my god is that you? you're presence is felt here at nolanfans, welcome.

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EnzoTheBaker wrote:Just to hedge my bets, if WB wants to go for the international audience, they might put it with Tintin (despite the younger audience). If they want to go for the IMAX audience, they might put it with MI4.

My money's still on Sherlock Holmes though. It's a rare situation when you have a trailer that people will want to see more than the movie it's playing in front of. I expect WB will use it to their advantage.

Aranion wrote:

DoubleD wrote:Sherlock Holmes 2 would be my guess.

This would be my guess as well. BEGINS did a Superbowl spot, but I don't believe TDK did, so I think that unlikely. TDK's second - and last - "full" trailer (as opposed to 15-30 second TV spots) debuted in front of Iron Man, so we might be seeing the second full trailer in front of The Avengers next May.

Right now, a full TDKR trailer is about the only thing that would get me to the theater for HOLMES 2.

EnzoTheBaker wrote:So, I'm going with the hypothesis that TDKR marketing campaign will be very similar to that of TDK, just four years later.

TDK - May 19, 2007 - Joker picture released after enough people email
TDKR - May 20, 2011 - Bane picture released after enough people tweet

TDK - July 27, 2007 - Teaser premiers in theater with The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox)
TDKR - July 15, 2011 - Teaser premiers in theaters with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, pt 2 (WB)

TDK - Dec 14, 2007 - Theatrical trailer premiers in theaters with I Am Legend (WB)
TDKR - ??? - Theatrical trailer premiers in theaters with ???

TDK - July 18, 2008 - The Dark Knight opens, and sets the record for opening weekend box office.
TDKR - July 20, 2012 - The Dark Knight Rises opens, and sets the record for opening weekend box office.

So, we can guess that the theatrical trailer will premiere within ±2 weeks of December 14th. Basically in December of this year. Here's the full list of those movies:

• Coriolanus
  We Need to Talk About Kevin
  New Year's Eve
  The Sitter
  Young Adult
  Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
  Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
  The Iron Lady
  Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
  The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  The Adventures of Tintin
  We Bought a Zoo
  In the Land of Blood and Honey
  The Darkest Hour
  Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
  War Horse

This needs to be big, so we can remove all of those with limited releases. Now, lets look at target audience. I Am Legend, Harry Potter, and The Simpsons were all PG-13 movies. That's the demographic WB wants for The Dark Knight series; mature, but not old enough to limit their ability to make money. We don't know the ratings to these movies yet, but we can guess most of them based on other movies in the series, or the type of movie.

• Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - PG
  The Adventures of Tintin - PG
  New Year's Eve - PG-13
  Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - PG-13
  Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - PG-13
  The Darkest Hour - PG-13
  War Horse - PG-13
  The Sitter - PG-13/R
  We Bought a Zoo - PG-13/R
  The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - R

Removing the PGs, Rs, and borderline cases gives us a pretty good list of possibilities. If we also remove New Year's Eve, because the target audience for a crappy rom-com has virtually no overlap with the target audience for The Dark Knight Rises, we get only four possibilities.

• Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - 12/16
  Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - 12/21
  The Darkest Hour - 12/25
  War Horse - 12/28

Assuming that WB is going to want a huge audience to see the trailer, let's look at some stats: Facebook Index (according to http://www.boxoffice.com ) and Trailer Views (according to http://www.traileraddict.com).

• Movie - Facebook Index - Trailer Views
  Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - 1,693,106 - 266,072
  Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - 32,141 - 220,160
  The Darkest Hour - 0 - 102,126
  War Horse - 349 - 196,716

Looks like WB best choice is Sherlock Holmes 2, based on both measurements. Now, those stats won't necessarily reflect total viewers by the time we get to December, but it's a pretty good guess that Sherlock Holmes 2 is going to be huge.

Note that we left out one of the most important criteria, which you can use as a shortcut. Warner Brothers only has two films coming out in December this year. One is an melodrama about 9/11 that's getting a limited release. The other is Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows.

christophmac wrote:EPIC POST. Also, it's great to be seeing you around here more often recently!

Vader182 wrote:

EnzoTheBaker wrote:Just to hedge my bets, if WB wants to go for the international audience, they might put it with Tintin (despite the younger audience). If they want to go for the IMAX audience, they might put it with MI4.

My money's still on Sherlock Holmes though. It's a rare situation when you have a trailer that people will want to see more than the movie it's playing in front of. I expect WB will use it to their advantage.

Tintin comes out September internationally (in a lot of territories anyway), so that's out probably.

-Vader

Crazy Eight wrote:

Vader182 wrote:
Tintin comes out September internationally (in a lot of territories anyway), so that's out probably.

-Vader

That kinda sucks for us living in the states... 2 months later blows. But I guess it'd be kinda cool if Tin Tin had already made $500 million before even opening in the States.

Is it possible that they put the trailer on 35mm/4K/2K prints of SH, and attach it to the 65mm/2K IMAX prints of MI:4?