with Tree of Life not coming out until next year and a very weak first half of the year, Inception really has some chances. Black Swan doesn't really look like a big oscar contender except fo the acting categories and I can see it only getting mixed-decent reviews. Somewhere,The Way Back and The Fighter look like strong contenders though

I'd say that the top 5 contenders for best picture are:

The Tree of Life
Inception
True Grit
Hereafter
The Fighter

I'd like Inception, True Grit, Hereafter and The Fighter to win some, but The Tree of Life has already won best picture, even though it won't be.

Just listen.

It's a film by Terrence Malick (shouts Oscars) starring Brad Pitt and Sean Penn (shouts Oscars) about family children growing up (shouts Oscars) and one of them witnesses the loss of innocence (screams Oscars). Oh dear. I can't think of anything more corrupted with the esscence of Oscars.

Malick isn't some killer Oscar winner though. He hasn't won shit lol. His films get a lot of talk because he takes a billion years to make them and they usually aren't even that great. Self indulgent babble I tell ya.

The Tree of life doesn't even come out until next year so it will be at the oscars 2012

Hereafter reviews are starting to sneak out little by little from Toronto and they're not very good thus far. I'd say little hope of oscar consideration for that one, if these are to be believed. Instead look to The Fighter, possibly, plus 127 hours, Black Swan, Toy Story 3 (maybe not since it's animated), The King's Speech (could be the one), Inception (yay), True Grit, The Way Back, Love and Other Drugs, and probably something that hasn't even entered the conversation yet.

The Kids are Alright, Blue Valentine...

The Tree of Life ~ Not coming out 'til next year. Why is it even hyped up so much?!
Black Swan ~ Mixed reviews, but Portman could win Best Actress.
Hereafter ~ Mixed reviews.
The Fighter ~ Dunno, probably acting rewards
The Way Back ~ Dunno
True Grit ~ Maybe some nominations, but Bridges is playing almost the same character as he did in Crazy Heart.
Inception ~ Loads of noms.
The Kids Are All Right ~ Loads of noms. Definitely Best Actress (possibly 2).
Winter's Bone ~ Definitely Best Actress (that's about it)
The King's Speech ~ Not sure

I can see Inception getting loads of nominations and wins. Really isn't that much for competition.

Inception Inc. wrote:The Tree of Life ~ Not coming out 'til next year. Why is it even hyped up so much?!
Black Swan ~ Mixed reviews, but Portman could win Best Actress.
Hereafter ~ Mixed reviews.
The Fighter ~ Dunno, probably acting rewards
The Way Back ~ Dunno
True Grit ~ Maybe some nominations, but Bridges is playing almost the same character as he did in Crazy Heart.
Inception ~ Loads of noms.
The Kids Are All Right ~ Loads of noms. Definitely Best Actress (possibly 2).
Winter's Bone ~ Definitely Best Actress (that's about it)
The King's Speech ~ Not sure

I can see Inception getting loads of nominations and wins. Really isn't that much for competition.

seems about right. I think only "Somewhere" is missing which is the Sophia Coppola movie that won the Venic film price(over Black Swan I think). It definately doesn't seem like a strong year. True Grit and The Way Back seem like strong Best Picture candidates

Yep, Somewhere got mixed/negative reviews. Supposedly far inferior to Sofia Coppola's previous effort, Lost in Translation.

Hereafter got horrible reviews so far.