“So, I view this … off-year election as one of the most important elections that I’ve been engaged in, because a lot can change because the institutions have changed,” Biden said. “The Supreme Court is more of an advocacy group these days than it is … evenhanded.” He expanded on that, saying that this election is the first where Americans are concerned “about whether we can keep our democracy.”
“Who’s gonna count the votes? Will it be the state legislature that can make a determination in who won the election? I can go on and on. There’s so much at stake,” he said. He’s clearly thinking about the fact that this court is taking on an absurd and extreme case this session that could hand over federal election and redistricting decisions entirely to state legislatures.
As a creature of the Senate, as an institutionalist, that’s real movement from Biden, amplified by the pitch he gave that night. “We’re less than 30 days away from the midterms, and the stakes are clear,” he said. “The right to choose is on the ballot. Your Social Security you paid for your whole life is on the ballot. The safety of our kids and gun violence is on the ballot. Literally, the survival of the planet is … on the ballot. And your right to vote. And democracy itself is … on the ballot.”
His bringing up of "Will it be the state legislature that can make a determination in who won the election?" is a direct broadside at the plaintiffs in the Moore case now before the SCOTUS.
Democrats have lost their strong lead against Republicans in the battle for control of the Senate over the past month, with the party’s chances at maintaining its slim majority in the upper chamber now at 54 in 100, down from 68 in 100 at the end of September, according to FiveThirtyEight, which calls the race a “dead heat.”
Republicans’ chances of wresting control of the House now stand at 82 in 100, up from 75 in 100 a week ago, according to FiveThirtyEight, which now predicts the GOP will win 230 seats (an increase of three seats from a week ago) and the popular vote by a 4.1 margin, up from 3.2 points on October 19.
A MAGA terrorist tried to kill the House Speaker today in her home. Fortunately she wasn't there but unfortunately her husband was there and the assailant fractured her husband's skull with a hammer.
Philip Lewis (via Twitter): "CNN reporting that the suspect who attacked Paul Pelosi while breaking into the home was shouting 'Where is Nancy, where is Nancy?'"
At the time of his arrest on Friday, DePape, 42, maintained a subscription-model blog where he vented rage over Covid-19 precautions and espoused beliefs shared by the conspiracist QAnon movement. The page also includes dedicated sections for Holocaust denial, climate change denial, transphobia, racism, misogyny, voter fraud conspiracy theories, Second Amendment absolutism, screeds against groomers and "pedos," and trashing actress Amber Heard, the ex-wife of Johnny Depp.
DePape posted similar hard-right and conspiratorial content on his Facebook page, which the platform deleted on Friday.
In an Aug. 23 post on his personal blog, DePape wrote, "How did I get into all this. Gamer gate it was gamer gate." Gamergate was an online misogynist harassment campaign that stretched across 2014 and 2015. It originated as a backlash to feminism and women in the video game industry but morphed into a strain of alt-right ideology that many argue radicalized legions of disaffected men.
The question is if Democrats show up on election day to a great enough extent as this Pew poll predicts (+14 for election day D voters versus 2020, -16 for D early voters) to counteract independents voting for Republicans and will that be enough to exceed a popular vote lead by 2 or more points in order to get to 218 seats or more. Rarely in history does it happen that the incumbent party of the WH doesn't lose seats in a midterm.
Around 2 points on that left side gets the Democrats a 50/50 chance at holding the House (because of gerrymandering). The more of a point lead the better.
As you can see the points separating the party leading the vote from the runner-up are usually substantial in the last 60 years in mid-terms with rare occasions like 1998 and to a lesser extent 1966.
The polls have actually been pretty good for Dems in the last few weeks, far better than is current conventional wisdom. In the past week Dems have shown rising intensity and performance, as the early vote came in 3 points more Democratic relative to 2020 today than a week ago. The last 7 non-partisan generics on 538 show a similar trend, having Dems up an average of 1.4 points:
Economist/YouGov 48-49
Politico/Morn Cons 48-43
NBC News 48-47
ABC/WaPo 48-50
Big Village 50-46
Yahoo/YouGov 46-44
Reuters/Ipsos 37-36
Even the GOP pollster Rasmussen showed the Dems picking up 2 points in their latest national track. Many of the recent national polls showing Rs with 3-4 leads had Republicans with greater vote intensity, something many polls have not found, and is certainly something we are not seeing in the early vote. The new daily track of the highly regarded firm Civiqs has Dems gaining a few points in recent days and closing 2020 with Dems up 50-47.
We’ve seen similar positive Dem results in recent non-partisan polls in the battleground states. Due to time restrains we won’t be able to go through these states today but here’s how non-partisan and GOP polls have seen Georgia in recent weeks, a dynamic we are seeing in most state polling now:
Now the runoff in Georgia will be for the 49th Democratic Senate seat which is the 51st in the caucus not counting the Vice President.
Steve Kornacki, NBC News: "NBC now calling CA-6 for Ami Bera (D) and CA-26 for Julia Brownley (D). Brings tally to 211-203 GOP. Now 21 uncalled D vs. R races. Magic number for House control: Dems: 15 GOP: 7" "The NBC News House model has just been revised. Our new estimate is that Republicans will finish with 219 seats, +\- 4." "NBC News has now called WA-3 for Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D). Dems now have 204 seats; GOP 211. 20 uncalled D vs. R races. Dems need 14 for a majority; GOP needs 7."
