I'm just going to pretend that Guillermo del Toro is being retroactively awarded Best Director for Pan's Labyrinth and not the half-baked genre mashup that he's winning the Oscar for this year. Most underwhelming winner since Tom Hooper tbh

The Shape of Water just won PGA, which means it's definitely winning DGA now. Fuck.

I still think Nolan has the edge at DGA (3-time nominee) and BAFTA (British). That should give him the edge for the BD Oscar too, but it's a real race between him and del Toro. If he loses DGA, he's done.

I just hope that critics wouldn't rave the shit out of The Post and The Greatest Showman. On paper they seem to be bigger Oscar materials than Dunkirk is.£ The Greatest Showman is in no way a threat lol. It's hard to say how strong The Post will be. I think it'll probably be nominated for Best Pict...

As MyCocaine mentioned, the only major contender that hasn't been seen at this point is The Post, and based on what people who have read the script have said, it's mostly Tom Hanks' and Meryl Streep's show (who are basically co-lead). From I've heard, there aren't really any standout supporting role...

Also not first cast press release order which was Hardy, Rylance, Branagh, Murphy, Whitehead, everyone else. Nor billing order which was Whitehead, everyone else, Branagh, Murphy, Rylance, Hardy ordered in what i can only assume WB thinks is likelihood of nominations not that anyone has a shot for ...

I'm currently predicting Dunkirk to win BP, though I can definitely imagine a scenario where it splits Director/Picture with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (considering its TIFF win). On paper, McDonagh's film looks like an odd choice, but it seems to have a lot of passion from audiences,...

Blade Runner's box office performance isn't great so far, and for a film like that it could damage its Oscar chances.

For the last few years, the cinematography winner has matched the directing winner, and Blade Runner won't be a top 3 BP contender, which means it won't win director. I'm not even that confident that Blade Runner will get a BP nomination (it could happen but I keep hearing that it's very slow and ve...

Gold Derby experts predictions: 9 of them are currently predicting Dunkirk to win Best Picture (for comparison, 8 of them are predicting Spielberg's The Post to win). http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/exp ... rt/recent/