Tenet - Box Office Discussion/Speculation

An original action espionage film releasing in IMAX on July 17, 2020.
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Joined: May 2012
blackColumn wrote:
August 13th, 2019, 6:02 am
It must surpass interstellar or else I would say Nolan is losing his charm. Ideally, it should surpass inception numbers.

Ideally speaking, I would love a filmmaker to come with an original movie every three years which makes 1B+ on box office.

Nolan is smart to go for a bigger budget since even Apple is now making an original series with each episode costing fifteen million dollars. If they are sure to make profit on such expensive TV shows why shouldn't filmmakers have the confidence to do better given that they have the luxury of theatrical exhibition and staggered realease.
Films and streaming networks have completely different business models.

Posts: 45
Joined: August 2019
The first two seasons of the Reese Witherspoon and Jennifer Aniston drama cost $300 million, a report says.

So, an apple TV plus original now costs more than a Christopher Nolan film.

Shocked. To say the least.

Posts: 45
Joined: August 2019
anikom15 wrote:
August 18th, 2019, 8:41 pm
blackColumn wrote:
August 13th, 2019, 6:02 am
It must surpass interstellar or else I would say Nolan is losing his charm. Ideally, it should surpass inception numbers.

Ideally speaking, I would love a filmmaker to come with an original movie every three years which makes 1B+ on box office.

Nolan is smart to go for a bigger budget since even Apple is now making an original series with each episode costing fifteen million dollars. If they are sure to make profit on such expensive TV shows why shouldn't filmmakers have the confidence to do better given that they have the luxury of theatrical exhibition and staggered realease.
Films and streaming networks have completely different business models.
And yet.

Streaming services have dramatically upped their game. The online shows' budget has skyrocketed while there is no signifant difference in the budget of hollywood movie.

Let's not pretend to sleep.

1) Established names like Spielberg and Scorcese are working with apple TV plus and netflix respectively. Paul Thomas Anderson has already worked with Netflix. Steven Soderberg is all set to work with HBO max.

2) Streaming giants like Netflix are not interested in theatrical distribution at all. If they ever use that channel it is a very limited release and the 'content' (like they like to call it) is simultaneously available online.

Last years both disney and at&t spent over $70B dolloars aquiring Fox and Time Warner respectively.
Of all streaming services, Netflix and Apple TV plus are going to be the most anti Cinema while Disney and Time Warner will keep using time tested staggered release model.
If web series are getting more budget, they know they are going to be profitable. Which brings me to the third point.

I don't know what is the attendence rate of an average movie theatre but if these tech companies somehow prove that online distribution is more viable/profitable - cinema will fade away, gradually.

Avengers Endgame was a franchise movie that surpassed Avatar only because of inflation. The reality actually is very grim right now for Cinema.

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Joined: March 2017
Looking at next year's slate of films, I think Tenet has the potential to maybe crack the top 10 highest grossing films (at least domestically).

These films will almost certainly make more money: Wonder Woman, Minions 2, Fast and Furious 9, Mulan, No Time to Die, Eternals, and Black Widow

I'm unsure about Godzilla vs Kong given how much the most recent Godzilla movie underperformed, but that also didn't have the hook of having two iconic characters facing off against one another.

I honestly don't see Jungle Cruise doing as well as some might expect. Judging by the director's track record, it has a high likelihood of not being good, and it might be coming out too close to the Jumanji sequel, so audiences might be fatigued by seeing another "The Rock in the jungle" scenario. Plus, since it's Disney, it's more likely to be tamer in content, which might not attract the same audience as Jumanji, and it's not clear how much smaller kids will be into the film, which isn't animated or a live-action remake of something everyone already loves.

What will be most interesting to see is how the two original Pixar movies perform next year. If their box office is close to Coco's numbers, then I feel like there's a chance Tenet will be in that same ballpark (unless they become more like Inside Out, which is very possible in the case of Soul especially).

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