Tenet - Box Office Discussion/Speculation

An original action espionage film releasing in IMAX on July 17, 2020.
Post Reply
Posts: 1041
Joined: January 2016
Location: DE
Oku wrote:
June 27th, 2019, 12:05 pm
Saw some set photos of Marvel's upcoming Black Widow movie, and I was amazed at how many similarities it shared with Tenet.

Both are:
- spy films (or at least I assume) coming out summer 2020; Black Widow in May, and Tenet in July
- currently shooting in formerly communist Eastern Bloc countries
- using a tram and an armored fighting vehicle in an action scene

Oh, and did I mention that there's also Bond 25 coming out in April 2020?

There's a very real chance that come July 2020, audiences could be burnt out on the spy genre, which will affect Tenet's box office unless it has some kind of high-concept hook setting it apart that we don't yet know about.

Safe to say, summer 2020 box office is going to be fun.
Kingsman is coming out, too

Posts: 18542
Joined: June 2010
Location: The White City
People doubted the box office prospects of Inception, Interstellar and Dunkirk.

This will be fine.


-Vader

Posts: 79
Joined: December 2015
Audiences don’t really get “burnt out”.... that’s just a misconception. They release over 5 superhero movies each year, and people still go watch them. Audiences are smarter than that... as long as the film is the great, people will flock to the cinema, regardless of the genre. Tenet will do just fine. In fact I would argue the opposite, if Bond 25 and the others are great, that only helps Tenet in the long run.

Posts: 33
Joined: August 2018
Around 700M

Posts: 607
Joined: January 2013
Looking at recent failures of tired franchise pictures, besides the Disney stuff, I think audiences are longing for something new. If this movie is good, it could really take off.

Posts: 3278
Joined: June 2010
radewart wrote:
June 27th, 2019, 1:39 pm
Looking at recent failures of tired franchise pictures, besides the Disney stuff, I think audiences are longing for something new. If this movie is good, it could really take off.
Absolutely

Posts: 18922
Joined: June 2012
Location: 1500s England
radewart wrote:
June 27th, 2019, 1:39 pm
Looking at recent failures of tired franchise pictures, besides the Disney stuff, I think audiences are longing for something new. If this movie is good, it could really take off.
Well, that on top of a relatively espionage heavy year in 2020 especially with all of them rather quickly after each other

Then again I have hopes for Nolan coming with the most creative one, narrative wise. I'm sure it's going to be a stunner too.

Posts: 821
Joined: December 2017
Nomis wrote:
June 27th, 2019, 2:54 pm
radewart wrote:
June 27th, 2019, 1:39 pm
Looking at recent failures of tired franchise pictures, besides the Disney stuff, I think audiences are longing for something new. If this movie is good, it could really take off.
Well, that on top of a relatively espionage heavy year in 2020 especially with all of them rather quickly after each other

Then again I have hopes for Nolan coming with the most creative one, narrative wise. I'm sure it's going to be a stunner too.
His movies are getting more and more audacious, creative and sophisticated each time, so yes, expect something incredible with Tenet.

Posts: 180
Joined: June 2018
I think, after giving my own question some thought, I know the answer: no! If you look at the current state of Hollywood, it's clear that you can't expect an original project with no name or franchise recognition to make a billion. No, not possible, even if Nolan directs it. The Dark Knight and its sequel made billions because they were movies about the biggest superhero the world has ever known besides Superman and Spider-Man. You had something to build from there. In this case, there is nothing outside of Nolan's name. Not even the cast sells this movie, because, outside of Pattinson, there are no leading people who have proven themselves to sell tickets for big blockbusters. When was the last time an original movie made over 700 million worldwide? All I'm thinking is Gravity. And that was seven years ago. This movie will be lucky to do Inception numbers. But even then it won't be as impressive, because its budget is said to be on 60 million higher than Inception's.

Posts: 957
Joined: June 2012
Batman's Batman wrote:
August 8th, 2019, 1:47 pm
I think, after giving my own question some thought, I know the answer: no! If you look at the current state of Hollywood, it's clear that you can't expect an original project with no name or franchise recognition to make a billion. No, not possible, even if Nolan directs it. The Dark Knight and its sequel made billions because they were movies about the biggest superhero the world has ever known besides Superman and Spider-Man. You had something to build from there. In this case, there is nothing outside of Nolan's name. Not even the cast sells this movie, because, outside of Pattinson, there are no leading people who have proven themselves to sell tickets for big blockbusters. When was the last time an original movie made over 700 million worldwide? All I'm thinking is Gravity. And that was seven years ago. This movie will be lucky to do Inception numbers. But even then it won't be as impressive, because its budget is said to be on 60 million higher than Inception's.
Fair points. The only recent movie I can think of that had no name or franchise recognition and still went on to gross over a billion dollars at the box office is Avatar, and that was 10 years ago. I don't think this movie will be some kind of Heaven's Gate-style flop by any means, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's the first Nolan film that loses some money for the studio. Only time will tell.

Post Reply