Darkline wrote:And why do you think they're released in November/December if the release date doesn't matter at all?
Oscar baits are released later in the year for a reason.
Maybe I should've said it a little different. The release date matters a bit, but at the end the film itself is more important. If the Academy loves Dunkirk more than any film released in Oscar season, why wouldn't it win?
Of course it can win. No one is saying it can't. But listen, there's a reason most of the movies that aim for Oscars get released so late in the year and that reason is they want to be fresh on Academy voters' mind when they pick winners.
It's the same with general marketing of movies: the promo starts/increases close to the premiere, because people have a short attention span and need to be reminded that they want to see the movie, even if they saw the teaser half a year ago and were impressed with it. People tend to forget.
So yeah, the release date plays not an insignificant part. Doesn't mean winning Oscars is impossible for Dunkirk, of course. It's just harder. Not impossible.