I've been saying it since the beginning. Dunkirk will get 5-10 nominations and win 1 or 2.

I feel the opposite I see Dunkirk getting 5-6 awards. We'll see.

I mean, I could easily see Sound Editing/Mixing and Visual Effects but I really feel like Score, Cinematography, and especially Director will go other places.

Bacon wrote:I mean, I could easily see Sound Editing/Mixing and Visual Effects but I really feel like Score, Cinematography, and especially Director will go other places.

Gonna be really disappointed if this happens. I really like The Shape Of Water, I feel del Toro is the main competition, but this is Nolan's time.

Is Baby Driver really gonna take editing? I know every audience member (and most people in here) absolutely loved Baby Driver's editing, but as far as I know, Smith has won more awards than Baby Driver for editing so far. Considering Dunkirk's genre and the fact that it's much higher praised amongst critics and a bigger hit in general, I don't think Baby Driver stand a chance at winning for editing at the Oscars.

Editing, sound editing and sound mixing are the three most obvious wins, and I'll go so far as to say they're in the box already. Production design and score I think it's still in the lead for (but could in fact lose both to Shape of Water), then director, cinematography and VFX are slightly less probable, but still highly possible. Then it will get a nom for picture, but it won't win that.

So I'm predicting 9 nominations and maybe 4 wins.

Edit: according to metacritic Baby Driver actually had one more win than Dunkirk. But Dunkirk has two more nominations. So I'll stick to my initial point.

Score could be lost to Jonny Greenwood or Alexandre Desplat. I'd prefer the former of the two for sure.

Director will be either Nolan or del Toro, probably the latter.

Bacon wrote:Score could be lost to Jonny Greenwood or Alexandre Desplat. I'd prefer the former of the two for sure.

Director will be either Nolan or del Toro, probably the latter.

Is this your prediction for GG, Oscars, or both?

Both. I have a feeling many awards are gonna be taken by Shape of Water and co. at both awards ceremonies. Get Out unfortunately will be a worse competitor for both Dunkirk and Shape of Water at the Oscars due to it not being split up by genre. The HFPA obviously love Del Toro and Desplat immensely.

Granted, I'd love to see Jonny Greenwood anything (Oscar or GG) tbh but I have a feeling it'll go to Desplat (even though he won recently...). When it comes to Greenwood, I'm a fanboy enough that even though I haven't yet seen the film, part of me wants him to win it over Zimmer.

I could be wrong though. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri or Call Me By Your Name could upset at the GG's.

I understand trying to keep expectations low, but it's very unlikely Dunkirk will go empty-handed Oscars night. Film and Sound Editing are pretty much guaranteed. They *usually* go for Best Picture nominees, so that works for Dunkirk. Even if it only manages to get those two wins in the end, I'd say that's still a great outcome.

Best Score
Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Editing
Best Editing

These 4 are a lock. There's no way any other film will win those other than Dunkirk. People have to remember, that Baby Driver and Blade Runner 2049 wont be nominated for Best Picture. That affects the final outcome. Voters are much more comfortable voting for a film that has a Best Picture nomination. Also, there's a large section of the industry that do believe Dunkirk is TECHNICALLY superior than any other film this year. You add those 2 things together, and it's pretty much guaranteed Dunkirk will have the majority vote.

Best Director is a 50/50 right now. It's a toss up between Nolan and Del Toro, anyone can win it. We have to wait for the DGA awards to really know who will win this. I think right now it's more likely Nolan, but you never know. We all thought Ben Affleck will win for Argo and he was never nominated.

The other awards chances are very slim, I don't think Dunkirk has officially lost the race to win the big award, but it needs to win big at one of the guilds, particularly the PGA's or DGA's. If it loses in both, all hope is lost for a Best Picture win :

Best Production Design
Best Picture
Best Visual Effects
Best Cinematography