[SPOILERS] TDKR Theatrical Trailer

The 2012 superhero epic about Batman's struggle to overcome the terrorist leader Bane, as well as his own inner demons.
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I was looking back at the previous Nolan films as far as the timing with when the second trailer comes out. I would assume it would be out around x-mas. What do you guys think? What film should it be in front of?

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Sherlock Holmes 2 would be my guess.

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DoubleD wrote:Sherlock Holmes 2 would be my guess.
This would be my guess as well. BEGINS did a Superbowl spot, but I don't believe TDK did, so I think that unlikely. TDK's second - and last - "full" trailer (as opposed to 15-30 second TV spots) debuted in front of Iron Man, so we might be seeing the second full trailer in front of The Avengers next May.

Right now, a full TDKR trailer is about the only thing that would get me to the theater for HOLMES 2.

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Aranion wrote:Right now, a full TDKR trailer is about the only thing that would get me to the theater for HOLMES 2.
+1

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So, I'm going with the hypothesis that TDKR marketing campaign will be very similar to that of TDK, just four years later.

TDK - May 19, 2007 - Joker picture released after enough people email
TDKR - May 20, 2011 - Bane picture released after enough people tweet

TDK - July 27, 2007 - Teaser premiers in theater with The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox)
TDKR - July 15, 2011 - Teaser premiers in theaters with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, pt 2 (WB)

TDK - Dec 14, 2007 - Theatrical trailer premiers in theaters with I Am Legend (WB)
TDKR - ??? - Theatrical trailer premiers in theaters with ???

TDK - July 18, 2008 - The Dark Knight opens, and sets the record for opening weekend box office.
TDKR - July 20, 2012 - The Dark Knight Rises opens, and sets the record for opening weekend box office. :clap:

So, we can guess that the theatrical trailer will premiere within ±2 weeks of December 14th. Basically in December of this year. Here's the full list of those movies:
  • Coriolanus
    We Need to Talk About Kevin
    New Year's Eve
    The Sitter
    Young Adult
    Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
    Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
    The Iron Lady
    Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
    The Adventures of Tintin
    We Bought a Zoo
    In the Land of Blood and Honey
    The Darkest Hour
    Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
    War Horse
This needs to be big, so we can remove all of those with limited releases. Now, lets look at target audience. I Am Legend, Harry Potter, and The Simpsons were all PG-13 movies. That's the demographic WB wants for The Dark Knight series; mature, but not old enough to limit their ability to make money. We don't know the ratings to these movies yet, but we can guess most of them based on other movies in the series, or the type of movie.
  • Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - PG
    The Adventures of Tintin - PG
    New Year's Eve - PG-13
    Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - PG-13
    Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - PG-13
    The Darkest Hour - PG-13
    War Horse - PG-13
    The Sitter - PG-13/R
    We Bought a Zoo - PG-13/R
    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - R
Removing the PGs, Rs, and borderline cases gives us a pretty good list of possibilities. If we also remove New Year's Eve, because the target audience for a crappy rom-com has virtually no overlap with the target audience for The Dark Knight Rises, we get only four possibilities.
  • Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - 12/16
    Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - 12/21
    The Darkest Hour - 12/25
    War Horse - 12/28
Assuming that WB is going to want a huge audience to see the trailer, let's look at some stats: Facebook Index (according to http://www.boxoffice.com ) and Trailer Views (according to http://www.traileraddict.com).
  • Movie - Facebook Index - Trailer Views
    Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - 1,693,106 - 266,072
    Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - 32,141 - 220,160
    The Darkest Hour - 0 - 102,126
    War Horse - 349 - 196,716
Looks like WB best choice is Sherlock Holmes 2, based on both measurements. Now, those stats won't necessarily reflect total viewers by the time we get to December, but it's a pretty good guess that Sherlock Holmes 2 is going to be huge.

Note that we left out one of the most important criteria, which you can use as a shortcut. Warner Brothers only has two films coming out in December this year. One is an melodrama about 9/11 that's getting a limited release. The other is Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. :thumbup:

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^ Very good analysis :twothumbsup:

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Law
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EnzoTheBaker wrote:So, I'm going with the hypothesis that TDKR marketing campaign will be very similar to that of TDK, just four years later.

TDK - May 19, 2007 - Joker picture released after enough people email
TDKR - May 20, 2011 - Bane picture released after enough people tweet

TDK - July 27, 2007 - Teaser premiers in theater with The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox)
TDKR - July 15, 2011 - Teaser premiers in theaters with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, pt 2 (WB)

TDK - Dec 14, 2007 - Theatrical trailer premiers in theaters with I Am Legend (WB)
TDKR - ??? - Theatrical trailer premiers in theaters with ???

TDK - July 18, 2008 - The Dark Knight opens, and sets the record for opening weekend box office.
TDKR - July 20, 2012 - The Dark Knight Rises opens, and sets the record for opening weekend box office. :clap:

So, we can guess that the theatrical trailer will premiere within ±2 weeks of December 14th. Basically in December of this year. Here's the full list of those movies:
  • Coriolanus
    We Need to Talk About Kevin
    New Year's Eve
    The Sitter
    Young Adult
    Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
    Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
    The Iron Lady
    Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
    The Adventures of Tintin
    We Bought a Zoo
    In the Land of Blood and Honey
    The Darkest Hour
    Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
    War Horse
This needs to be big, so we can remove all of those with limited releases. Now, lets look at target audience. I Am Legend, Harry Potter, and The Simpsons were all PG-13 movies. That's the demographic WB wants for The Dark Knight series; mature, but not old enough to limit their ability to make money. We don't know the ratings to these movies yet, but we can guess most of them based on other movies in the series, or the type of movie.
  • Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - PG
    The Adventures of Tintin - PG
    New Year's Eve - PG-13
    Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - PG-13
    Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - PG-13
    The Darkest Hour - PG-13
    War Horse - PG-13
    The Sitter - PG-13/R
    We Bought a Zoo - PG-13/R
    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - R
Removing the PGs, Rs, and borderline cases gives us a pretty good list of possibilities. If we also remove New Year's Eve, because the target audience for a crappy rom-com has virtually no overlap with the target audience for The Dark Knight Rises, we get only four possibilities.
  • Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - 12/16
    Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - 12/21
    The Darkest Hour - 12/25
    War Horse - 12/28
Assuming that WB is going to want a huge audience to see the trailer, let's look at some stats: Facebook Index (according to http://www.boxoffice.com ) and Trailer Views (according to http://www.traileraddict.com).
  • Movie - Facebook Index - Trailer Views
    Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - 1,693,106 - 266,072
    Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - 32,141 - 220,160
    The Darkest Hour - 0 - 102,126
    War Horse - 349 - 196,716
Looks like WB best choice is Sherlock Holmes 2, based on both measurements. Now, those stats won't necessarily reflect total viewers by the time we get to December, but it's a pretty good guess that Sherlock Holmes 2 is going to be huge.

Note that we left out one of the most important criteria, which you can use as a shortcut. Warner Brothers only has two films coming out in December this year. One is an melodrama about 9/11 that's getting a limited release. The other is Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. :thumbup:
nerd

I think it'll be on MI4. Seems about right.

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Location: The White City
is Sherlock Holmes being released in IMAX as well? I'd be shocked if they wouldn't want people to see this trailer in an IMAX theater.

-Vader

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Location: La La Land
Vader182 wrote:is Sherlock Holmes being released in IMAX as well? I'd be shocked if they wouldn't want people to see this trailer in an IMAX theater.

-Vader
Nope.

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