State of the race (as of Dec. 26th):
http://blog.moviefone.com/2010/12/26/ch ... -rankings/
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. 'Inception' – Chicago, Florida, Oklahoma and D.C. said it was the year's best.
2. 'The King's Speech' – San Francisco, St. Louis and critics in the Southeast disagreed.
3. 'The Kids Are All Right' – BFCA/Globe/Chicago nominees 8-0 since 2001.
4. 'Black Swan' – Even with Globe snub, a BFCA/Chicago nominee is 5-0 in that period.
5. 'The Fighter' – Scripts with only BFCA support are a 50/50 proposition. ((BEST PICTURE NOMINEES???))
BEST DIRECTOR:
1. David Fincher ('The Social Network') - Is anyone seriously betting against Fincher at this point?
2. Darren Aronofsky ('Black Swan') - 14 awards behind Fincher. But 3 is good enough for second.
3. Christopher Nolan ('Inception') - Actually ahead of Aronofsky in pure award mentions. 12 wins/nominees to his 10.
4. Tom Hooper ('The King's Speech') - BFCA/Globes/Chicago nominees are 19-2 for Oscar nod. Only Baz Luhrmann (2001) and Peter Jackson (2005) shut out. Top 4 look solid.
5. Danny Boyle ('127 Hours') - Eight wins/nominations to #6's five. That's one ahead of Hooper too.
BEST PICTURE:
1. 'The Social Network' - 65 awards compared to Black Swan's 28 right now.
2. 'Black Swan' - Only two films to beat 'Social' so far. Austin chose this.
3. 'The King's Speech' - BFCA/Globes/Chicago + SAG Ensemble nominees are 18-3 since 1999. That equals your top three.
4. 'Inception' - BFCA/Globes/Chicago minus SAG Ensemble nod is 14-0 since 2005.
5. 'The Fighter' - Despite no Chicago nod, films that get the other three are 11-2 since 2001.