My impression of the Oscar Race 2019, per convo in The Irishman thread.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the current frontrunner. (Cross posted from Irishman): it screened for Academy members and they became so packed they had to add additional screenings. It's a tender elegy for their industry, a love letter for actors (by far the biggest demographic in the academy) and written and directed by one of the 'greats' of his generation who has never won best picture or best director. There's an impression Tarantino "grew up" with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, too. It's a powerful mix.
Marriage Story doesn't have an "Oscar Narrative Hook" as said elsewhere, and Irishman is crazy long and slow, which means many academy members may watch it on/off multiple viewings at home which will "hurt" the movie probably. It might be seen by some as a bit of a slog, despite enormous love for Scorsese. The Netflix factor may hurt those movies more than anything, still seen as an existential threat to the industry.
Jo Jo Rabbit may be too weird and divisive, and we don't give best picture winners to foreign movies (Parasite). Ford V Ferrari by all accounts is too slight, so is A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Joker could easily become the Green Book/Bohemian Rhapsody of this season, outraging the film twittersphere but plays big to the expanded academy audience. Then there's 1917 and Little Women, which are huge unknowns but there's good buzz on both.
(in order)
Hollywood
Irishman
Marriage Story
Jo Jo Rabbit
Parasite
Ford V Ferrari
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
The Two Popes
Joker
-Vader
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the current frontrunner. (Cross posted from Irishman): it screened for Academy members and they became so packed they had to add additional screenings. It's a tender elegy for their industry, a love letter for actors (by far the biggest demographic in the academy) and written and directed by one of the 'greats' of his generation who has never won best picture or best director. There's an impression Tarantino "grew up" with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, too. It's a powerful mix.
Marriage Story doesn't have an "Oscar Narrative Hook" as said elsewhere, and Irishman is crazy long and slow, which means many academy members may watch it on/off multiple viewings at home which will "hurt" the movie probably. It might be seen by some as a bit of a slog, despite enormous love for Scorsese. The Netflix factor may hurt those movies more than anything, still seen as an existential threat to the industry.
Jo Jo Rabbit may be too weird and divisive, and we don't give best picture winners to foreign movies (Parasite). Ford V Ferrari by all accounts is too slight, so is A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Joker could easily become the Green Book/Bohemian Rhapsody of this season, outraging the film twittersphere but plays big to the expanded academy audience. Then there's 1917 and Little Women, which are huge unknowns but there's good buzz on both.
(in order)
Hollywood
Irishman
Marriage Story
Jo Jo Rabbit
Parasite
Ford V Ferrari
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
The Two Popes
Joker
-Vader
