I'd prefer Alfonso takes the first award and Estrada takes the second. But Cooper will most likely win the second one.

keep in mind the director's brand of the academy usually is 1-2 different with DGA, meaning McKay's out imo. Pawel instead possibly.

bacon can rest easy knowing chances for a Coogler BD nom just went down


-Vader

Paweł? You do realize that's his first name, not his last name? I highly doubt Pawlikowski and you are friends.

LelekPL wrote: ↑

January 8th, 2019, 5:03 pm

Paweł? You do realize that's his first name, not his last name? I highly doubt Pawlikowski and you are friends.

This is dumb. Vader's not writing a formal essay. Maybe Pawel is just easier to write?

This Twitter thread has changed the way I think about the director race. https://twitter.com/MarkHarrisNYC/statu ... 9630407681 I can see Lanthimos, who has the international cinema appeal, or Jenkins, who has the artsier auteur appeal (kind of like PTA last year) sneaking in. Or Coogler, just because of how immensely popular with the Academy his film is assumed to be.

I wish I can say Farrelly is the weakest contender but Green Book is just overperforming everywhere. The popularity of McKay and Vice within the Academy remains unknown, but PGA+DGA suggests strong industry support. At least there's no Bohemian Rhapsody in this race

I'm thrilled Rhapsody's out for director (most likely), but don't forget SAG Ensemble and PGA. BP nom is possible.

tbh i think the academy will swing the other way after the public perception of it.

still think ASIB BP / Roma BD is the most likely but it's a VERY open race at this point. a lot can happen.


-Vader

Farrelly is in. Would guess Lanthimos is best candidate for spot 5.

All that matters is Lee getting in. Right an old wrong.

I think Cuaron and Lee are locks. Cooper probably has the 3rd spot too, although I . At least one of Yorgos and Farrelly will get in. I think the other contenders at this point are Jenkins, McKay, possibly even Coogler. Last year, PTA came out of nowhere with that BD nom so maybe Chazelle or Pawlikowski have a shot. If the Oscars want more female representation, Lynne Ramsay might even be able to slip in. It'll be a very interesting race, although I'd be surprised if someone outside of these names gets in.

https://variety.com/2019/music/news/tho ... 203102955/

Lowkey just want Suspirium to get nominated so that he performs it live at the ceremony. At this point, I don't care about anything else.

Thankfully BAFTA were sorta colder on BR but nominated the guy who probably directed most of it which was nice.

Said person deserved an Oscar nom for Drive and was a bigger snub than Brooks